ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

General Note

In the following chapter, the results of the network analysis are described. One important thing to mention is that all results are based on a mathematical model, which finds one of various possible solutions for the set of constraints. As modelling always means reducing complexity of the described reality to an extent allowing for feasible preparation as well as calculation time on one hand while maintaining a cer- tain accuracy of the results on the other hand, not all parameters are taken into con- sideration. Thus, for example, shale gas, the injection of bio-methane, and hydrogen/methane from power-to-gas facilities have not been taken into considera- tion for national production data, as the respective volumes are either insignificant or the future perspective is still unclear. Also the development of gas demand in the single countries is based on historical data on the one the hand, on the other hand the figures are result of different prognosis and extrapolations. Therefore there is no guarantee for the assessment results to exactly show future developments. As mentioned already in the chapter on methodology, in the CEE GRIP the physical/ hydraulic potential of the gas network is analysed, therefore also price driven gas flows are not taken into consideration.

National Production

As the handling of national production in the model does – other than in reality – not limit the consumption to the respective producing countries, but also allows for export, an overview over the national production capacity is given below.

300 GWh/d

250

200

150

100

50

0

AT

BG

CZ

DEg

DEn

HR

HU

PL

RO

SK

2014

2018

2023

Figure 2: Evolution of the national production capacity

The main producer in the region is Romania, with capacities between 280 and 200 GWh/d, followed by Germany (Gaspool) with capacities between 217 and 130GWh/d and Poland (approx. 100GWh/d). Austria, Bulgaria, Germany (Netcon- nect), Croatia and Hungary have production capacities between 30 and 60GWh/d. In the Czech Republic and in Slovakia, national production does only play a minor role. Slovenia is the only country in the region without production facilities.

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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