ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

4.1 Reference Scenarios

4.1.1. Average Day

Demand

Under average day conditions, the total demand in the CEE region amounts for 4,421GWh/d in 2014, 4,861GWh/d in 2018 and 4,959GWh/d in 2023. In the charts below, the demand evolution per country is displayed, as well as the cumu- lated demand in the CEE region.

1,400 GWh/d

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

2014

2018

2023

DEn

DEg

PL

RO

HU

CZ

AT

SK

BG

HR

SI

Figure 3: Evolution of the demand by country/balancing zone under the average day conditions

6,000 GWh/d

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2014

2018

2023

DEn

DEg

PL

RO

HU

CZ

AT

SK

BG

HR

SI

Figure 4: Evolution of the cumulated demand under the average day conditions

It is worth noticing that according to the German nTYNDP 1) 2013 the demand of both German balancing zones is decreasing by about 142 GWh/d in total (-6%), although Germany is together with Poland still responsible for more than half of the CEE gas demand. Poland is showing the biggest absolute increase in demand with 286 GWh/d (almost 60%) between 2014 and 2023. Only the Slovenian demand growth with an increase of 61% is higher in relative terms. The demand situation in

1) Refers to the German national Ten Year Network Development Plan (see www.netzentwicklungsplan-gas.de)

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023