ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Romania (+/- 0%) and Slovakia (+11%) is almost stable, whereas the rest of the CEE countries show an increase between 25% and 45%, being 27% on average over the 2014–2023 period for the whole region. A detailed overview is given in the table below.

2014 [GWh/d]

2018 [GWh/d]

2023 [GWh/d]

COUNTRY

2014 to 2018 2018 to 2023 2014 to 2023

AT

275

321

346

16.56%

7.95% 25.82%

BG

94

119

130

26.82%

9.92% 39.39%

HR

74

100

104

34.77%

3.78% 39.87%

CZ

275

337

362

22.59%

7.54% 31.84%

DEg

1,071

1,038

1,005

- 3.07% - 3.17% - 6.14%

DEn

1,268

1,225

1,192

- 3.46% - 2.68% - 6.05%

HU

302

400

436

32.38%

9.07% 44.39%

PL

485

716

771

47.60%

7.63% 58.86%

RO

395

395

395

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

SK

155

173

173

11.97%

0.00% 11.97%

SI

28

38

45

39.18% 15.85% 61.24%

Table 8: Evolution of the demand by country/balancing zone under the average day conditions

Supply

The supply analysis shows that under average day conditions each country can cover its demand. The remaining flexibility for each country to be supplied lies above 20% for the whole region with implementation of FID projects, with the exception of Poland which has an 11% remaining flexibility in 2018 and 4% in 2023. By implementing the non-FID projects, Poland would also increase the remaining flexibility in its gas grid to over 20% for both 2018 and 2023.

Supply sources

As shown in the chart below, Russia is the main supplier for the region, providing 69% of the supply in 2014 and increasing to around 77% in 2023. National production in the region decreases from 24% in 2014 to 14% in 2023. The share of Norwegian gas is almost constant during the period with around 6.8%. LNG plays only a minor role with shares up to 1.8% and 3% in the FID and non-FID scenarios in 2023, respectively. The gas originating from the SGC region has a maximum share of around 1%.

80 %

60

40

20

0

1.84

1.47

1.04

0.01

0.24

LNG

NP

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 5: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the average day conditions

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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