ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

3,500 GWh/d

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2014

2018

2023

DEn

DEg

PL

RO

HU

CZ

AT

SK

BG

HR

SI

Figure 12: Evolution of the demand by country/balancing zone under the design case conditions

12,000 GWh/d

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

2014

2018

2023

DEn

DEg

PL

RO

HU

CZ

AT

SK

BG

HR

SI

Figure 13: Evolution of the cumulated demand under the design case conditions

Supply

The supply situation in the region under design case conditions is almost sufficient. In 2014, only Bulgaria (16.6%) and Poland (15%) show a remaining flexibility lower than 20%. In 2018, assuming the FID-case, only Poland suffers from a slight shortage of 1.41% (remaining flexibility of 14.2% in 2018 non-FID), which disap- pears in 2023 in the FID (7%), as well as non-FID case (> 20%). The remaining flexibility of Hungary is expected to be at the level of 13.6% in 2018, 8% in the 2023 FID-case and > 20% in the non-FID case.

Supply Sources

Also under Design Case conditions and FID case, Russia remains the main supplier for the CEE region, providing 56.4% of the supply in 2014 and around 52% in 2018 and 2023. Assuming the non-FID case, the shares would be 68% in 2018 and 73% in 2023. The share of national production in the region is around 12% in 2014 and 2018, decreasing to 9% in 2023. For the non-FID case, its share will amount to 9.6% in 2018 and 8,2% in 2023. The share of gas from underground storages increases by around 3% between 2014 and 2018, as well as between 2018 and 2023, being initially 28% in 2014, assuming the FID case. In the non-FID case, the share would decrease to around 16.5% in 2018 and 11.2% in 2023. The share of Norwegian gas remains at around 3.3%. LNG plays only a minor role with shares up to 1.4% and 2.7% in the FID and non-FID scenarios in 2023, respectively. The gas originating from Algeria and Libya has a share lower than 0.3%. The share of gas from the SGC region is expected to be around 2% in 2023 in the non-FID case.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023