ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

10,000 GWh/d

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

2014

2018

2023

DEn

DEg

PL

RO

HU

CZ

AT

SK

BG

HR

SI

Figure 16: Evolution of the cumulated demand under the single uniform risk day conditions

Supply

In the 2014 FID case, Hungary shows with a value of 15.7% a remaining flexibility lower than 20%. In 2018 FID, the remaining flexibility of the Hungarian network de- creases to 7.3%, recovering to 19.36% in 2023 due to the utilisation of national UGS reserves. Poland’s remaining flexibility of 11.1% in 2018 FID increases to 18.7% in 2023. Slovenia‘s remaining flexibility would drop to 9.7% in 2023, in the FID case. With implementation of the non-FID cases, all the CEE countries would have a remaining flexibility higher than 20% in 2018, as well as in 2023.

Supply Sources

Also under CEE UR/EU AW conditions and FID case, Russia remains the main sup- plier for the region, providing around 50% of the supply in 2014 and 2018, as well as around 52.6% in 2023. In the non-FID case, the share would be around 58% in 2018 and 2023. The share of national production in the region is around 16.7% in 2014, 14.7 in 2018, decreasing to 10.5% in 2023. For the non-FID case, its share is expected to be at the level of 11% in 2018 and 9% in 2023. The share of gas from underground storages in the FID case decreases from 29% in 2014 to 27.8% in 2018 and later on increases to 30% in 2023. In the 2018 non-FID case, the share would decrease to around 24.5% and to 23% in 2023. The share of Norwegian gas remains at around 4.7% in the FID case and 3.5% in the non-FID case. LNG plays only a minor role with shares up to 1.9% and 3.8% in the FID and non-FID scenar- ios in 2023, respectively. The gas originating in Algeria and Libya has a share lower than 0.45%. The share of gas from the SGC region is expected to be around 2.5% in the 2023 non-FID case.

80 %

60

40

20

0

1.89

1.90

0.28

0.21

0.32

0.42

0.08

0.12

0.15

0.03

SGC 0.03

0.01

LNG

NP

UGS

DZ

LY

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 Non-FID

2023 Non-FID

Figure 17: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the single uniform risk day conditions

38 |

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023