ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

4.1.7 Market Integration

In the analysis of market integration, the parameter of interest is the potential reach of gas from different sources under application of various different supply source weightings, or in other words, the dependence of single countries on different supply sources. Market integration scenarios illustrate different possible evolutions of the supply mix impacted by factors such as reserves, their accessibility, the evo- lution of national demand of exporting countries and the existence of alternative markets competing with Europe. For market integration scenarios, different supply source deliverabilities were used. “Full Minimisation” (min RU, min LNG) in the context of the GRIP means a modelling approach aiming at minimising supply from each source separately, in order to identify Supply Source Predominance, and replacing it with the corresponding volume from the remaining sources in such a way that the maximum minimisation of the analysed supply is achieved. “Targeted Maximisation” (max RU, NO, …) on the other hand means a modelling approach aiming at maximising supply from each source separately as to reach each Zone; the decrease of each other supply is done in proportion to its share in the Reference Case and with the Minimum Potential scenario used as a limit. The use of an import route is a result of the modelling. The maximisation or minimisation of source deliv- eries always refers to the deliveries dedicated to the entire European Union. There- fore an impact on the CEE region is not inevitable, as increased deliveries of one source do not necessarily reach the CEE region, but can already be consumed in upstream countries. An overview over the gas delivered to the entire EU per source and case is given in the tables below.

Origin RU

NO

LY

DZ

SGC

LNG

2014 FID

min LNG

728

2,450

354

1,801

–

655

min RU

188

1,759

354

1,438

–

3,883

2018 FID

min LNG

1,062

2,245

354

1,801

–

1,055

min RU

427

1,651

354

1,517

–

4,360

2023 FID

min LNG

1,094

2,317

354

1,801

–

1,157

min RU

440

1,788

354

1,517

–

4,514

2018 non-FID

min LNG

1,627

2,160

354

1,801

–

991

min RU

486

1,596

354

1,517

–

4,747

2023 non-FID

min LNG

2,152

2,306

354

1,899

201

526

min RU

362

1,198

354

1,591

214

5,643

Table 9: Minimum deliveries of gas in [GWh/d] to the EU per source under the market integration assessment

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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