ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report
Origin RU
NO
LY
DZ
SGC
LNG
2014 FID
max DZ
520
1,630
263
1,164
–
2,196
max LNG
475
1,399
263
950
–
3,418
max LY
520
1,630
336
950
–
2,196
max RU
817
1,550
263
950
–
2,196
max NO
520
2,094
263
950
–
2,196
2018 FID
max DZ
744
1,665
283
1,335
–
2,714
max LNG
658
1,090
283
971
–
4,924
max LY
744
1,665
336
1,020
–
2,714
max RU
1,126
1,558
283
1,020
–
2,714
max NO
674
2,118
283
1,020
–
2,714
2023 FID
max DZ
752
1,637
293
1,543
–
2,982
max LNG
705
881
293
1,009
–
5,597
max LY
752
1,736
336
1,115
–
2,982
max RU
1,223
1,392
293
1,115
–
2,982
max NO
752
2,094
293
1,115
–
2,982
2018 non-FID
max DZ
1,398
1,535
252
1,335
–
2,519
max LNG
1,120
1,021
252
869
–
4,924
max LY
1,440
1,561
336
910
–
2,519
max RU
1,624
1,485
252
910
–
2,519
max NO
1,396
2,065
252
910
–
2,519
2023 non-FID
max DZ
1,709
1,336
227
1,543
139
2,943
max LNG
1,390
813
227
929
134
5,605
max LY
1,884
1,346
336
929
139
2,943
max RU
3,662
974
112
629
69
2,383
1,552
2,106
227
929
139
2,943
Table 10: Maximum deliveries of gas in [GWh/d] to the EU per source under the market integration assessment
4.1.7.1 Average Day – minimum RU
Supply mix Under minimized deliveries of Russian gas, the respective shares of Russian gas and the shares of gas from national production show almost opposite developments. Russian gas is expected to increase from 28.3% in 2014 to 33.8% in 2018 and 41.7% in 2023 in the FID case, whereas in the non-FID case, its share is almost constant with 30%. National production on the other hand is expected to decrease from almost 36% in 2014 to 29.6% in 2018 and 22.3% in 2023 in the FID- as well as the non-FID case. Norwegian gas has a relatively constant share between 19% and 20% in the FID and non-FID case. The same is true for the share of Libyan deliveries, although it moves around a lower level, between 2.15% and 1.5%. Algerian gas, on the other hand, is expected to have a share of 6.6% in 2014, decreasing to 4.7% in the 2023 FID-case. In the non-FID case, the share remains at 5%. LNG contributes to the replacement of Russian gas with a share of 7.9% in 2014, increasing to 9.7% in 2023 FID. By implementing the non-FID projects, the share would be pushed to 14.1% respectively 17.2% in 2018/2023.
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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023
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