ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Origin RU

NO

LY

DZ

SGC

LNG

2014 FID

max DZ

520

1,630

263

1,164

–

2,196

max LNG

475

1,399

263

950

–

3,418

max LY

520

1,630

336

950

–

2,196

max RU

817

1,550

263

950

–

2,196

max NO

520

2,094

263

950

–

2,196

2018 FID

max DZ

744

1,665

283

1,335

–

2,714

max LNG

658

1,090

283

971

–

4,924

max LY

744

1,665

336

1,020

–

2,714

max RU

1,126

1,558

283

1,020

–

2,714

max NO

674

2,118

283

1,020

–

2,714

2023 FID

max DZ

752

1,637

293

1,543

–

2,982

max LNG

705

881

293

1,009

–

5,597

max LY

752

1,736

336

1,115

–

2,982

max RU

1,223

1,392

293

1,115

–

2,982

max NO

752

2,094

293

1,115

–

2,982

2018 non-FID

max DZ

1,398

1,535

252

1,335

–

2,519

max LNG

1,120

1,021

252

869

–

4,924

max LY

1,440

1,561

336

910

–

2,519

max RU

1,624

1,485

252

910

–

2,519

max NO

1,396

2,065

252

910

–

2,519

2023 non-FID

max DZ

1,709

1,336

227

1,543

139

2,943

max LNG

1,390

813

227

929

134

5,605

max LY

1,884

1,346

336

929

139

2,943

max RU

3,662

974

112

629

69

2,383

1,552

2,106

227

929

139

2,943

Table 10: Maximum deliveries of gas in [GWh/d] to the EU per source under the market integration assessment

4.1.7.1 Average Day – minimum RU

Supply mix Under minimized deliveries of Russian gas, the respective shares of Russian gas and the shares of gas from national production show almost opposite developments. Russian gas is expected to increase from 28.3% in 2014 to 33.8% in 2018 and 41.7% in 2023 in the FID case, whereas in the non-FID case, its share is almost constant with 30%. National production on the other hand is expected to decrease from almost 36% in 2014 to 29.6% in 2018 and 22.3% in 2023 in the FID- as well as the non-FID case. Norwegian gas has a relatively constant share between 19% and 20% in the FID and non-FID case. The same is true for the share of Libyan deliveries, although it moves around a lower level, between 2.15% and 1.5%. Algerian gas, on the other hand, is expected to have a share of 6.6% in 2014, decreasing to 4.7% in the 2023 FID-case. In the non-FID case, the share remains at 5%. LNG contributes to the replacement of Russian gas with a share of 7.9% in 2014, increasing to 9.7% in 2023 FID. By implementing the non-FID projects, the share would be pushed to 14.1% respectively 17.2% in 2018/2023.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023