ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

80 %

60

40

20

2.15

1.71

1.65

0

1.52

1.52

0.07

SGC 0.06

0.06

LNG

NP

DZ

LY

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 21: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under minimum deliveries of gas from Russia and the average day conditions

Supply The demand of the CEE region, which remains constant in all average day scenarios, can be covered in the whole CEE region. Besides Poland in the 2018 and 2023 FID- case (10.7% and 4%, respectively), all countries have left more than 20% remain- ing flexibility. In the non-FID cases, the remaining flexibility increases over 20% in the whole CEE region.

4.1.7.2. Average Day – minimum LNG

Supply mix With a minimization of LNG deliveries, the share of Russian gas would climb to 74% in 2014, further increasing to 78.1% in 2018 and 81% in 2023. In the non-FID case, the 2018 share is expected to be 81%, further increasing to 82.6% in 2023. Again, the share of gas from national production is behaving contrary, decreasing from 20.2% in 2014, to 15.8% in 2018 and 11.5% in 2023. In the non-FID case, the expected shares for both 2018 (13.7%) and 2023 (11.5%) are one percent lower. LNG would play a minor role with up to 1.4% in 2023 FID.

80 %

60

40

20

0

1.40

0.82

1.13

LNG

NP

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 22: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under minimum deliveries of LNG and under the average day conditions

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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