ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

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The maximum NO, DZ and LY scenarios under average day demand conditions only differ marginally from each other, in terms of supply mix, as well as in terms of sup- ply situation. Therefore, the average shares together with a maximum standard deviation over the scenarios are presented. Russia is the main supplier of the region again, with shares of on average 69% in 2013, 70.8% in 2018 and 75.8% in 2023, the standard deviation [s²] being <0.77%. In the 2018 and 2023 non-FID case, the average share would be 71.9% and 75.8%, respectively, with a standard deviation of 0.57% and 1.24%, respectively. Norwegian gas is expected to slightly increase from 6.5% in 2014 to 7.2% and 7.35% (s² <0.97%). Gas from the SGC region only plays a very limited role in the 2023 non-FID case with on average 1.15% and s² < 0.04%. Gas from national production has a share of avg. 24% in 2014, decreasing to 20.3% in 2018 (19.4% non-FID) and 15.3% in 2023 (13.8% non-FID), with a standard deviation of less than 0.4%. LNG has its highest share with 2.15% in 2023 (3% non-FID, standard deviation < 0.47%), and gas from Algeria in none of the cases exceeds a share of 0.37%. Supply The demand of the CEE region can be covered in each CEE country. Besides Poland in the 2018 and 2023 FID-case (10.7% and 4%, respectively), all countries have left more than 20% remaining flexibility in all three cumulated scenarios. In the non- FID cases, the remaining flexibility increases over 20% in the whole CEE region. Supply predominance Compared to the reference case, a maximization of NO, DZ or LY gas deliveries towards the EU has no significant impact on the supply mix within CEE region, as shown in the tables below.

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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