ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

4.2 Network Resilience – Security of Supply

4.2.1. Single Uniform Risk Day in whole CEE Region, Average Winter Day in the rest of the EU

In the following scenarios, the impact of supply disruptions during a single uniform risk day in the CEE region is investigated. For the rest of the EU, average winter day conditions are assumed. As Russia is under all types of reference conditions the main supplier of the region, an interruption of the Ukraine route, of the Belarus route, as well as of a simultaneous disruption of both routes is taken into consider- ation. The demand figures are the same as for the respective reference case.

COUNTRY Demand As already described above, under the sin- gle day uniform risk scenario, the overall de- mand in the CEE region increases from 7,736 GWh/d in 2014 to 8,447 GWh/d in 2018 and 8,616 GWh/d in 2023. Germany is the only country showing a decrease in demand, being 6.1% between 2014 and 2023. Slovenia (+62%), Poland (+59.6%), Croatia (+40.5%), Bulgaria (+37.5%) and Hungary (+20%) also in this scenario show a significant increase of demand, whereas Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are likely to show moderate increase rates with 15.8%, 15.6% and 12.1%. Again, the demand in Romania remains constant over the whole period. The absolute numbers are given in the table on the left. Table 11: Evolution of gas demand [GWh/d] by country/balancing zone under the single day uniform risk scenario 2014 2018 2023 AT 733 777 848 BGn 187 236 257 HR 74 100 104 CZ 799 871 911 DEg 1,415 1,372 1,328 DEn 1,676 1,618 1,574 HU 954 1,145 1,182 PL 715 1,073 1,142 RO 718 718 718 SK 400 448 448 SI 63 87 102

4.2.1.1 Disruption via Ukraine

Supply situation The supply situation in Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Germany (GasPool, as well as NetConnect) and Slovakia is sufficient, with a remaining flexibility above 20% in the FID as well as non-FID-case over the entire period. Bulgaria is expected to face a dramatic shortage in 2014 (-67%), but with implementation of FID pro- jects, the shortage will be removed from in 2018 onwards and sufficient capacity is established. Poland is expected to suffer from a slight shortage (-0.16%) in 2018 FID only, although the remaining flexibility is lower than 10% in 2014 (17.3%) and 2023 FID (9.7%). In the non-FID case, the remaining flexibility would increase to over 20% only in 2023, after a value of 16.6% in 2018. The situation in Slovenia is relaxed in 2014 and 2018 (FID as well as non-FID), only in the 2023 FID case, the remaining flexibility would go down to 9.7%, but would increase to a value far be- yond 20% by implementing the non-FID projects.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023