ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report
Shortages from -0.15% in 2014, -18.41% in 2018 to -23.45% in 2023 are expect- ed to occur in Hungary. The implementation of the non-FID projects would remove the shortage 9.43% in 2018, 3.53% in 2023). Hungary profits in this situation from the utilisation of its national UGS reserve. For Romania, a tense situation is expect- ed: for 2014, the shortage is estimated to -14.7%, for 2018 and 2023, FID as well as non-FID, -13.2% respectively -18.8% are expected.
20 0 40 60 80 %
-0.15
-0.16
-80 -60 -40 -20
AT
BG
HR
CZ
DEg
DEn
HU
PL
RO
SK
SI
2014 FID
2018 FID
2023 FID
2018 non-FID
2023 non-FID
Figure 38: Infrastructure remaining flexibility by country/balancing zone under the disruption via Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions
Source shares As the disruption of the deliveries via Ukraine line means a cut of a major import route for Russian gas, the respective share is reduced accordingly (8.75% in 2014, 15.6% in 2023 FID, around 37% in 2018 and 2023 non-FID). As Russian gas is mainly replaced by gas from UGS, its share is relatively high with around 60% in 2014 and round 56% in 2018 FID, in 2023 FID. In the non-FID case, it decreases from 39% in 2018 to 37% in 2023. The share of national production decreases from 22.5% in 2014 to 19.3% in 2018 and 14% in 2023 (16% in 2018 in non-FID and 12.8% in 2023 non-FID) – an increase of on average 4.6% compared to the reference case. A detailed overview over the supply source shares per country and year is given in the tables below.
80 %
60
40
20
0
1.49
1.42
1.81
0.72
0.81
0.51
0.49
0.47
0.20
0.12
0.15
0.10
0.12
LNG
NP
UGS
DZ
LY
SGC
NO
RU
2014 FID
2018 FID
2023 FID
2018 non-FID
2023 non-FID
Figure 39: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the disruption via Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions
GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |
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