ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Shortages from -0.15% in 2014, -18.41% in 2018 to -23.45% in 2023 are expect- ed to occur in Hungary. The implementation of the non-FID projects would remove the shortage 9.43% in 2018, 3.53% in 2023). Hungary profits in this situation from the utilisation of its national UGS reserve. For Romania, a tense situation is expect- ed: for 2014, the shortage is estimated to -14.7%, for 2018 and 2023, FID as well as non-FID, -13.2% respectively -18.8% are expected.

20 0 40 60 80 %

-0.15

-0.16

-80 -60 -40 -20

AT

BG

HR

CZ

DEg

DEn

HU

PL

RO

SK

SI

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 38: Infrastructure remaining flexibility by country/balancing zone under the disruption via Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions

Source shares As the disruption of the deliveries via Ukraine line means a cut of a major import route for Russian gas, the respective share is reduced accordingly (8.75% in 2014, 15.6% in 2023 FID, around 37% in 2018 and 2023 non-FID). As Russian gas is mainly replaced by gas from UGS, its share is relatively high with around 60% in 2014 and round 56% in 2018 FID, in 2023 FID. In the non-FID case, it decreases from 39% in 2018 to 37% in 2023. The share of national production decreases from 22.5% in 2014 to 19.3% in 2018 and 14% in 2023 (16% in 2018 in non-FID and 12.8% in 2023 non-FID) – an increase of on average 4.6% compared to the reference case. A detailed overview over the supply source shares per country and year is given in the tables below.

80 %

60

40

20

0

1.49

1.42

1.81

0.72

0.81

0.51

0.49

0.47

0.20

0.12

0.15

0.10

0.12

LNG

NP

UGS

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 39: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the disruption via Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

53

Made with