ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

2014 FID – UA

2018 FID – UA

2018 non-FID – UA

<1% 1–5%

5–20% >20%

1–5%

5–20% >20%

2023 FID – UA

2023 non-FID – UA

Figure 40: Remaining flexibility by country under under the disruption via Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions

Storage connections In the FID-case, most of the storage connections are used to withdraw at full load, meaning without remaining flexibility. Except for Germany, with remaining flexibility of more than 20% in the entire period, the connection in Croatia in 2014 and the connection of Austrian storages towards Germany in 2018 show a value >20%. The situation is a bit more relaxed in the non-FID case. Here, Bulgarian, German, Croa- tian storage connections, as well as the connection of Slovakian storages towards Austria have left more than 20% flexibility, the value of Austrian storage connections is 12.2% in 2018. The picture is similar in 2023, where the Croatian connection has no more flexibility left, the Polish UGS connection increases to 3.6% and the value for Austria climbs beyond 20%.

4.2.1.2 Disruption via Belarus

Supply situation Compared to the Ukraine route disruption, the impact of a Belarus line disruption has direct impact only on Poland, as it is the only country in the CEE region which is directly connected to BY. Poland is expected to have a shortage of around -7% in 2014, which would be reduced to -3.6% in 2018. In 2023 a value of 7.1% (FID) and over 20% (non-FID) is expected. In Hungary, the only other country with less than 20% remaining flexibility in the FID case, remaining flexibility decreases from 15.7% in 2014 to 1.7% in 2023.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023