ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

80 %

60

40

20

0

-20

AT

BG

HR

CZ

DEg

DEn

HU

PL

RO

SK

SI

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 41: Infrastructure remaining flexibility by country/balancing zone under the disruption via Belarus and the single day uniform risk conditions

Source shares The disruption of the supplies via Belarus means a cut of the share of Russian gas by 5% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2018 FID, compared to the reference case. In 2023 FID, no significant difference to the reference scenario can be found. In the non-FID case, the RU share with 53.7% would be 4% lower than in the reference scenario in 2018. In 2023, with a plus of 20% compared to reference, 78.3% are expected. The share of gas from UGS is around 3% higher (FID) with 32% in 2014, 30.5% in 2018 and 33.2% in 2023. In the non-FID case, in 2018 28% are expected, followed by a significant decrease to 9% in 2023. The share of gas from national production would amount to 17.3% in 2014, 16.3% in 2018 and 9.3% in 2013. In the non-FID case, for 2018 12.7% and for 2023 4.4% are expected. A detailed overview over the supply source shares per year is given in the tables below. In the attached maps, the supply situation in the single CEE countries is indicated.

80 %

60

40

20

1.99

1.82

0

0.63

1.62

1.08

0.84

0.55

0.37

0.28

LNG

NP

UGS

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 42: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the disruption via Belarus and the single day uniform risk conditions

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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