ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

2014 FID – BY

2018 FID – BY

2018 non-FID – BY

<1% 1–5%

5–20% >20%

1–5%

5–20% >20%

2023 FID – BY

2023 non-FID – BY

Figure 43: Remaining flexibiliy by country under the disruption via Belarus and the single day uniform risk conditions

Storage connections No remaining flexibility for the entire period in the FID case is left in the UGS connections of Hungary, Poland and Romania. Croatia expects a reduction from over 20% in 2014 to 0% in 2018 and 2023, whereas Bulgaria has no remaining flexibility left in 2014, but is likely to increase to >20% in 2018 and 2023. For Austria, a full load operation of UGS connections towards Germany is expected for 2023. For the non-FID case, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and the connec- tion of Austrian UGS towards Germany are expected to have 0% remaining flexibility. In 2018, Hungary can expect 4.8% remaining flexibility, while in 2023, all UGS connections are expected to have more than 20% remaining flexibility.

4.2.1.3 Simultaneous disruption via Ukraine and Belarus

Supply situation The supply situation under a simultaneous Ukraine and Belarus route interruption in Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Germany (GasPool, as well as NetConnect) and Slovakia is sufficient, with a remaining flexibility above 20% in the FID as well as non-FID-case over the entire period. Like in the Ukraine disruption scenario, Bulgaria is expected to face a dramatic shortage in 2014 (-67%), but with implementation of FID projects, the shortage will be remedied from 2018 onwards. Poland is expected to suffer from a shortage of -26% in 2014 and -16.4% in 2018 FID. In 2023 FID, the remaining flexibility is expected to be increased to 9.7%. In the non-FID case, the remaining flexibility is expected to be at a level of more than 20% only in 2023, after 16.2% in 2018. The situation in Slovenia is relaxed in 2014 and 2018 (FID as well as non-FID), only in the 2023 FID case, the remaining flexibility would go down to 9.7% which would be increased to a value far beyond 20% by implementing the non-FID projects.

56 |

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023