ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Shortages of -0.15% in 2014, -18.41% in 2018 to -23.45% in 2023 are expected to occur in Hungary. The implementation of the non-FID projects would remove the shortage, increasing the remaining flexibility to 9.43% in 2018 and to 3.53% in 2023. Hungary profits in this situation from the utilisation of its national UGS reserve. For Romania, a tense situation is expected: for 2014, the shortage is estimated to -14.7%, for 2018 and 2023, FID as well as non-FID, -13.2% respectively -18.8% are expected.

20 0 40 60 80 %

-0.15

-80 -60 -40 -20

AT

BG

HR

CZ

DEg

DEn

HU

PL

RO

SK

SI

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 44: Infrastructure remaining flexibility by country/balancing zone under the simultaneous disruption via Belarus and Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions

Source shares As the simultaneous disruption of deliveries via Ukraine and Belarus line means the worst case of an import route disruption for Russian gas, the respective share is reduced accordingly (6.11% in 2014, around 12% in 2018 and 15.6% in 2023 FID, 32.9% in 2018 non-FID and 34.8% in 2023 non-FID). As Russian gas is mainly replaced by gas from UGS, its share is relatively high with around 62% in 2014, 58% in 2018 FID and round 60% in 2023 FID. In the non-FID case, it decreases from 42.3% in 2018 to 38% in 2023. The share of national production decreases from 23.4% in 2014 to 19.5% in 2018 and 14% in 2023 (16.3% in 2018 in non-FID and 13.1% in 2023 non-FID) A detailed overview over the supply source shares per year as well as the supply situation in the single CEE countries is given in the table and maps below.

80 %

60

40

20

1.79

1.91

0

1.48

1.42

0.71

0.67

0.78

0.15

0.47

0.19

0.18

0.49

0.10

0.12

LNG

NP

UGS

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 Non-FID

2023 Non-FID

Figure 45: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the simultaneous disruption via Belarus and Ukraine and the single day uniform risk conditions

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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