ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report
Source shares The major cut of the import route of Russian gas reduces the respective share to 9.2% in 2014, 15.7% in 2018 and 14.9% in 2023 FID, to around 26.3% in 2018 and to 40.5% in 2023 non-FID. As Russian gas is mainly replaced by gas from UGS, the respective share is relatively high with around 60% in 2014 and 2023 FID, in 2018 FID round 55.6%. In the non-FID case, it decreases from 45% in 2018 to 35.4% in 2023. The share of national production decreases from 22.7% in 2014 to 19.2% in 2018 and 14.5% in 2023 (17.2% and 13.5%, respectively in 2018 /2023 non-FID) – an increase of on average 4.8% compared to the reference case. A detailed overview over the supply source shares per country and year is given in the tables below.
80 %
60
40
20
1.89
0.94
1.68
0
0.77
1.30
1.46
0.76
0.61
0.64
0.39
0.19
0.14
LNG
NP
UGS
DZ
LY
SGC
NO
RU
2014 FID
2018 FID
2023 FID
2018 non-FID
2023 non-FID
Figure 48: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the disruption Ukraine and the two-week uniform risk day conditions
2014 FID – UA
2018 FID – UA
2018 non-FID – UA
<1% 1–5%
5–20% >20%
1–5%
5–20% >20%
2023 FID – UA
2023 non-FID – UA
Figure 49: Remaining flexibility by country under the disruption via Ukraine and the two-week uniform risk day conditions
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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023
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