ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Source shares The major cut of the import route of Russian gas reduces the respective share to 9.2% in 2014, 15.7% in 2018 and 14.9% in 2023 FID, to around 26.3% in 2018 and to 40.5% in 2023 non-FID. As Russian gas is mainly replaced by gas from UGS, the respective share is relatively high with around 60% in 2014 and 2023 FID, in 2018 FID round 55.6%. In the non-FID case, it decreases from 45% in 2018 to 35.4% in 2023. The share of national production decreases from 22.7% in 2014 to 19.2% in 2018 and 14.5% in 2023 (17.2% and 13.5%, respectively in 2018  /2023 non-FID) – an increase of on average 4.8% compared to the reference case. A detailed overview over the supply source shares per country and year is given in the tables below.

80 %

60

40

20

1.89

0.94

1.68

0

0.77

1.30

1.46

0.76

0.61

0.64

0.39

0.19

0.14

LNG

NP

UGS

DZ

LY

SGC

NO

RU

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 non-FID

2023 non-FID

Figure 48: The share of supply sources in the CEE region under the disruption Ukraine and the two-week uniform risk day conditions

2014 FID – UA

2018 FID – UA

2018 non-FID – UA

<1% 1–5%

5–20% >20%

1–5%

5–20% >20%

2023 FID – UA

2023 non-FID – UA

Figure 49: Remaining flexibility by country under the disruption via Ukraine and the two-week uniform risk day conditions

60 |

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023