ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

Storage connections Unlike in the single day uniform risk scenario, not only Hungary, Poland and Roma- nia have no remaining flexibility left in their UGS connections for the entire period in the FID case, also Bulgaria withdraws from UGS at full load. Croatia expects a reduction from over 20% in 2014, to 0% in 2018 and 2023. For Slovenia, the values are around 17% to 18% over the entire period, in the FID, as well as in the non-FID case. For the non-FID case, Hungary, Poland Romania are expected to have 0% flexibil- ity in 2018, but in 2023, all UGS connections (besides Slovenia, as mentioned), have more than 20% remaining flexibility.

4.2.2.3 Simultaneous disruption via Ukraine and Belarus

Supply situation The supply situation in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany (GasPool as well as NetConnect) and Slovakia is sufficient, with a remaining flexibility above 20% in the FID, as well as non-FID-case over the entire period. Croatia (18.4%) and Slovenia (13%) are below only 20% in 2023 FID. Poland is expected to have a shortage of 20% in 2014, but will continuously improve its situation in the FID scenario (-16.2% in 2018, -4.7% in 2023). In the non-FID scenarios for 2018 a shortage of -16.9% is expected, which would be removed by 2023, having a flexibility of more than 20%. Hungary (FID: 6.41% in 2014, -14.76% in 2018, -16.4% in 2023; non-FID: 15.76% in 2018, 9.17% in 2023) is suffering from shortages in 2018 and 2023 FID, Romania (FID: -14.8% in 2014, -20% in 2018, -25.9% in 2023; non-FID: -13.3% in 2018, -19.1% in 2023) is expected to face shortages in the FID, as well as the non-FID case over the entire period. Bulgaria, under implementation of the FID projects suffering from shortages during the entire period (-63% in 2014, -9% in 2018, -13.8% in 2023), would have sufficient (>20%) remaining flexibility with the implementation of the non-FID projects.

20 0 40 60 80 %

-80 -60 -40 -20

AT

BG

HR

CZ

DEg

DEn

HU

PL

RO

SK

SI

2014 FID

2018 FID

2023 FID

2018 Non-FID

2023 Non-FID

Figure 53: Infrastructure flexibility under the simultaneous disruption via Belarus and Ukraine and under the two-week uniform risk day conditions

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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