ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

The analyses conducted within the CEE GRIP 2014–2023 concentrate on a closer look at the development of natural gas infrastructure in the CEE region during the upcoming decade. The central focus of this regional development plan is to assess the functioning of currently existing networks and the prospects for their further expansion in the near future. The analysis was performed based on a number of supply and demand assumptions which were aimed at testing the networks under normal and emergency situations, including the most demanding ones that result from severe climatic con- ditions and disruption scenarios. The summary of key findings of this CEE GRIP is presented in the following para- graphs, reflecting particular subject of analysis.

Demand Evolution

The increase of demand in the CEE region is expected to be significant with a rate of around 12% in the EU-wide under the AD, AS, AW, DC scenarios. The growth rate in the (mixed) CEE UR/EU AW single day and two-week scenarios is a bit lower with around 11.5% increase, respectively. The major share of the growth is estimated for the first part of the period, between 2014 and 2018, for the timespan between 2018 and 2023, the expected increase is rather moderate.

2014 [GWh/d]

2018 [GWh/d]

2023 [GWh/d] Δ 2014–2018 [%] Δ 2018–2023 [%] Δ 2014–2023 [%]

DEMAND SCENARIO

Average Day

4,421

4,861

4,959

9.95

2.02

12.17

Average Summer Day

2,940

3,230

3,299

9.86

2.14

12.21

Average Winter Day

5,980

6,543

6,690

9.41

2.25

11.87

Design Case

9,772

10,410

10,561

6.53

1.45

8.07

CEE 2W AW

7,369

8,055

8,217

9.31

2.01

11.51

CEE UR AW

7,736

8,447

8,616

9.19

2.00

11.38

Table 15: Summary of forecasted demand under all scenarios in the CEE region

Slovenia and Poland show the biggest increase with around 60%, followed by Hungary, Croatia and Bulgaria with rates between 44% and 39% in the EU-wide demand scenarios and 40% to 24% in the mixed scenarios, respectively. The Czech Republic with demand growth of 31% and 15%, respectively, Austria with around 25% and 15%, as well as Slovakia with 12% to 8% represent the middle field. The only country with an expected decrease of demand is Germany with around -6%.

Supply Situation

In the average day scenarios, the situation is sufficient in general, only Poland is expected to have around 10% flexibility in 2018 and around 4% in 2023 FID case (approx. 1% in the AD and max LNG scenario). In the non-FID case, the remaining flexibility exceeds 20% in the entire region. Although the design case is the most demanding one, only a slight shortage (-1.4%) in Poland is expected for the 2018 FID case. Flexibility levels between 5% and 20% occur in some cases in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. An implementation of the non-FID projects is expected to almost completely mitigate the issue.

GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023 |

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