ENTSOG GRIP CEE 2014-2023 / Main Report

The results of average winter day scenarios suggest that Poland might be affected in 2023 FID case (-0.3%), however this can be solved with implementation of non-FID projects. No shortages are expected for the average summer day, but still the remaining flexibility is below 20% in Poland in 2018 (17.7%) and 2023 (9.7%) in the FID scenarios. In the non-FID cases the remaining flexibility is over 20% in the whole CEE region. The picture is a bit different in the mixed scenarios. Although the situation under the reference scenario is – besides a 2023 FID shortage in Hungary in the CEE 2W UR/EU AW case – similar to the design case, in the disruption scenario several countries in the region are expected to face partially dramatic shortages: whereas Bulgaria (in 2014 only), Hungary and Romania are impacted vastly in case on an interruption of supplies via Ukraine in both, the FID as well as the non-FID case, Poland is the only country expecting shortages in case of a Belarus route disruption for 2014 and 2018 FID and non-FID. Hungary is likely to have reduced flexibility in the FID case. The network resilience is expected to be improved under non-FID cases at the end of the 10-year period analysed in the CEE GRIP.

Image courtesy of GASCADE Gastransport GmbH

Supply Mix, Network Resilience, Market Integration

Russia has been and will remain the main supplier of the region with a minimum share of 50% in all reference scenarios. Storages (where applied in the model) and national production play a significant role as well. The expected decrease of national production is mainly compensated by Russian gas. Norwegian gas share normally is under 10%, except in case of minimum Russian deliveries where the Norwegian share is almost 20%, which is almost double the LNG share. In case of disruptions, Russian gas is mainly substituted by gas stored in UGS.

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GRIP Central Eastern Europe 2014–2023