Sheep Industry News July 2025

Market Report

CHARLES MARTINEZ, PH.D. University of Tennessee

Expected Seasonal Headwinds Going into the Summer

E xpected Seasonal Headwinds Going into the Summer As the industry works its way into the summer months, prices in most of the lamb segments are turning to the expected seasonal/annual lows. Additionally, the industry, much like all other proteins industries, is experiencing volatility due to international trade uncertainty. Retail In the first week of June, the USDA retail reports showed steady featuring rate percentages at approximately 22.5 percent. The feature rate is the amount of sampled stores advertising any reported item during a current week, expressed as a “percentage” of the total stores (24,824) sampled. For reference, in March, the feature rate was around 10 percent. The Northeast region (CT, DE, MA, MD, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT) and the Southeast region (AL, FL, GA, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV) both have higher featuring rates of 27.3 percent and 33.4 percent, respectively. This indicates that stores are finding value in featuring lamb prod ucts in the meat case. Additionally, the national activity rate in the first week of June was at 7,346. The activity rate is a measure of the absolute frequency of feature activity equal to the total number of stores for each advertised item (i.e. retailer with 200 outlets featuring 3 items has an activity index of 600). For refer ence, in March, the national activity rate was at 2,753. Thus, this is additional information showing that stores are finding value in putting lamb in the meat case and nudging consumers to lamb.

Wholesale Through 2025, the lamb cutout value averaged $459.93 per cwt. For the same period in 2024, the lamb cutout value averaged $471.91 per cwt. While the lamb cutout is averaging $11.98 per cwt. lower this year compared to 2024, the cutout value is averag ing $27.14 per cwt. higher for the same period compared to the previous five-year average ($432.78 per cwt.). In 2024, the cutout value trended lower in the second half of the year, which landed 2024 cutout values to be on par with the previous five-year aver age. Given last year’s trends and seasonal expectations this year, prices will likely trend the same way and become on par, or lower, than the previous five-year average. As for the primal cuts, rack (8-Rib, light) prices continue to remain high at $1,228.13 per cwt. in the first week of June. Through 2025, rack prices have averaged $1,192.13 per cwt. which is $61.10 per cwt. higher than last year’s average ($1,131.03 per cwt.) over the same period, and $74.46 per cwt. higher than the previous five-year average ($1,117.67 per cwt.) for the same period. Given the retail reports, racks have been averaging $15.99 per pound and holding steady. This suggests strong demand from the retail segment is supporting rack prices at the wholesale level. Slaughter Through the first week of June, weekly lamb and yearling slaughter is averaging 35,500 head per week. Total lamb and yearling slaughter on the year is approximately 746,638 head. Compared to last year, total slaughter is 3.2 percent higher for the same period. Through 2025, lamb dressed weights have averaged 64.1 pounds, which is 1.2 pounds heavier than last year for the same period. Compared to the previous five-year average, current dressed weights are averaging 2.7 pounds lighter. Total lamb production (number of head slaughtered multiplied by dressed weight) year-to-date is 5.1 percent larger compared to last year but 2.1 percent lower than the previous five-year average. Weekly slaughter numbers are expected to seasonally decline this summer. Prices Feeder lamb prices (60- to 90-pound) in the three-market average (CO, TX, SD) surged in the first quarter of the year. At the start of 2025, prices were $255.92 per cwt., peaked at $345 per cwt. in February, and since then, have trended

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