U Magazine, Spring 1986

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South Africa: Ripe for revolution

By Dr. James Gump

.. Lo be a ka ra te ex pe rt" in o rd e r to defend himse lf from th e police. a nd " Lo be a doc to r to h elp m y com rades whe n the police have s h ot them ... according lo th e New York Times. Fa nie's s tory re pres ents the m a king of a revoluliona ry. a nd it is re plica ted freque nlly: poli ce have a rres led chi ldre n a s young as seven in the pas t e ig ht mon t hs. Should the curre n t conf1ic t e rupt into a widespread. v iol e nt revoluli on. the conseque nces can only be catas trophi c. The re will be no winne rs, onl y losers. Thus. the m o re impo rla nt ques tion is wha t the South Afri cans can do lo avo id revolulion . This is a presc ripti ve queslio n not predic li ve. His toria ns a re m odes ll y u seful whe n it comes to presc riplion a nd pa rtic u la rl y we ll placed fo r desc ripti on . He n ce. in discu ssing the current c ris is in South Afri ca I will m ove cautious ly from histori cal descripti on towa rd a p resc ri p ti ve con c lu s ion . And as fo r p redi c li on. I h eed care full y the wo rd s of 18 th ce n tury a utho r Horace Wa lpole. who wro le : "Prognos li cs do no t a lways

Sludenls frequ enlly ask m e whe n I think revolulio n will e ng ulf Soulh Afri ca. Histori a ns a re nol mu c h a l predi c lion . a nd I usua lly offe r a n evasi ve response (e.g.. the silua lion is loo vola lil e lo predi c l or on e s hould nol unde res lima le lhe powe r of the milila ry lo resisl) . Ce rta inly. a ll th e c lassic ing redients for revolution in Sou th Afri ca ripe n da il y. And South African s ecurity forces has te n the ripening. Fo r exam p le. 11-year-old Fa nie Goduka was a rrested July 11. 1985. nine days be fore the gove rnment dec la red a s ta te of em e rge n cy (whic h gave poli ce virlua ll y unlimited powers lo a rrest a nd de ta in ). Fa nie was acc u sed of th rowing s lones- h e says he did not– a nd sent lo j a il to s pend 57 days. He sh a red th e sam e j a il ce ll with thirteen m a le cell ma tes. s ome ha rd e ned crimina ls. who a t limes beat him for s po rl. His m o th e r says h e now c ri es out a t nighl a nd m ay h ave to be treated by a psych iatri s t. Acco rding lo Fa ni e. h e is " now go ing to th row s to nes... He wa nls

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