GNYADA November 2016 NY Auto Outlook

Data Through September 2016

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

SEPTEMBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

September September

%

August

July 2016

YTD '16 Thru Sept

YTD '15 Thru Sept

%

2016

2015 Change

2016

Change

Industry Total

49,758 50,064 -0.6%

59,521 51,152

460,602 442,224 4.2%

Cars

19,260 21,370 -9.9%

23,468 36,053

20,412 30,740

183,832 276,770

195,427 246,797

-5.9% 12.1%

Light Trucks

30,498 28,694

6.3%

Detroit Three

13,874 13,406

3.5% -3.5%

16,123 10,001 29,143

13,774

128,640 75,456 225,199 31,307

120,142 72,441 220,750 28,891

7.1% 4.2% 2.0% 8.4%

European Japanese

7,904

8,188

8,151

24,532 25,232 -2.8%

25,243

Korean

3,448

3,238

6.5%

4,254

3,984

Data Source: IHS Markit

QUICK FACTS

5. SUV market share reached 50.6% thru September of this year, up 3.6 points versus a year earlier. 6. Combined hybrid/electric vehicle market share exceeded year-ago levels in September of this year. 7. Ram , Dodge , Chevrolet , Audi , Hyundai , Mazda , Kia , Jeep , Nissan , and Honda registrations were up by more than 5% so far this year. Historical figures were revised by IHS Automotive and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases.

1. Metro area new vehicle market declined by less than 1% in September of 2016 versus a year earlier. 2. Metro area market was up 4.2% during the first nine months of this year. The U.S. retail market was down slightly during the same period. 3. Metro area new retail registrations for all of this year are predicted to exceed 600,000 units and increase by 2.8% from 2015. 4. Metro area used vehicle market increased 1.4% during the first nine months of this year.

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECENT RESULTS IN NEW AND USED VEHICLE MARKETS

Percent Change in New Retail Registrations

% Change YTD '16 Through September vs YTD 15

% Change September '16 vs September '15

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% -0.6%

12% 16% 20%

Metro NYC new vehicles

Metro NYC new vehicles

U.S. new vehicles

U.S. new vehicles

0% 4% 8%

1.6%

4.2%

-0.6%

-8% -4%

-20% -16% -12%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Metro area registrations are predicted to exceed 600,000 units this year

603,500

586,981

553,884

531,573

501,070

452,076

449,172

450,850

432,032

384,763

Data Source: IHS Markit.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Forecast

Factors boosting new vehicle sales • Low interest rates

Factors holding sales back • Pent up demand is waning • Trade-in values are expected to soften

Primary factors impacting the metro area new vehicle market:

• Attractive incentive offers • Growth in personal income • New products • Low gasoline prices

Uncertainty for the market: It’s too early to tell how the outcome of the Presidential election will impact new vehicle sales. Some proposed policies could stimulate sales, while others could hold the market back. The potential impact will become clearer when there is specific information on new taxation initiatives, infrastructure spending, and trade policy.

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2016 Issue

Domestic Brand Market Share Increases Slightly in 2016

Market Share - YTD 2016 and YTD 2015 Through September

YTD '15 Through September YTD '16 Through September

50%

48.9% 49.9%

40%

30%

27.9% 27.2%

20%

Market Share

16.4% 16.4%

10%

6.8% 6.5%

0%

Data Source: IHS Markit. Data Source: IHS Markit. Data Source: IHS Markit.

Japanese

Domestic

European

Korean

Passenger Cars Account for Less Than 40% of Metro Area Market

Market Share - YTD 2016 and YTD 2015 Through September

YTD '15 Through September YTD '16 Through September

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

50.6%

47.0%

44.2%

39.9%

Market Share

9.5%

8.8%

SUVs

Passenger Cars

Pickups/Vans

Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Market Share Moves Higher in September of This Year

Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share - 2014, 2015, and 2016 Through September

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

2016 2015 2014

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

September

July ‘16Through September ‘16

YTDThrough September

2016

2015 % change

Current

Yr Earlier % change

2016

2015 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

49,758 50,064 -0.6% 160,431 161,748 -0.8% 460,602 442,224 4.2%

19,260

21,370 -9.9%

63,140 70,541 -10.5% 183,832 195,427 -5.9%

30,498

28,694

6.3%

97,291 91,207

6.7%

276,770 246,797 12.1%

13,874

13,406

3.5%

43,771 43,616

0.4%

128,640 120,142 7.1%

7,904

8,188

-3.5%

26,056 25,743

1.2%

75,456 72,441 4.2%

24,532

25,232 -2.8%

78,918 81,455

-3.1%

225,199 220,750 2.0%

3,448

3,238

6.5%

11,686 10,934

6.9%

31,307 28,891 8.4%

1,100 1,131 1,736

1,199 1,140 1,923

-8.3% -0.8% -9.7% 30.0% 14.0% 14.4% -29.0%

3,713 3,837 5,795 1,146 1,551 8,740 1,172 2,838

3,812 3,433 6,207 1,544 8,176 2,057 2,194 990

-2.6% 11.8% -6.6% 15.8%

10,869 11,196 -2.9%

10,448

9,310 12.2%

18,088 18,067 0.1%

351 521

270 457

3,235 4,363

2,593 24.8% 4,113 6.1%

0.5% 6.9%

2,746

2,401

25,051 22,103 13.3%

402 664 100

566 720 116

-43.0% 29.4%

5,216 7,500

6,535 -20.2% 6,234 20.3%

-7.8%

-13.8%

319

313

1.9%

875

891

-1.8%

3,097

3,473 -10.8%

9,324 2,698

10,647 -12.4%

28,459 28,958 -1.7%

856

780

9.7% -1.8% 5.1% 2.9%

2,822

-4.4% -0.1% 8.5%

8,384

8,192 2.3%

6,615 2,439 1,041

6,734 2,320 1,012

22,019 22,046

63,070 59,656 5.7% 21,930 20,202 8.6%

8,388 2,852

7,728 3,290

-13.3% 185.5% 0.3% 0.9% 6.8% -9.3% 13.2%

8,665 1,082

9,258 -6.4%

133

48

177.1% -1.1% 4.7% -4.0% -2.7% 5.5% -7.8% 5.8% 10.8% -10.3% -2.5% 5.8% 48.7% -0.3% 283.6%

491

172

593

82.5%

3,606

3,645

11,734 11,701

34,021 31,782 7.0%

961 430

918 448

3,236 1,348 5,785 1,345 3,237 7,459

3,206 1,262 6,380 1,188 3,086 7,410

9,315 4,253

8,689 7.2% 3,777 12.6%

1,735

1,784

16,231 16,635 -2.4%

403 886

382 961

3,821 8,606

3,297 15.9% 8,010 7.4%

4.9% 0.7% 7.4% -4.5% -4.2%

2,605

2,462

21,187 21,285 -0.5%

174 227

157 253

653 714

608 748

1,967 2,246

1,790 9.9% 2,146 4.7%

5,236

5,372

16,161 16,862

47,297 44,661 5.9%

220 946

208 636

683

862

-20.8% 25.2%

2,142 7,409

2,233 -4.1% 5,692 30.2%

2,641 7,292

2,110 6,969

2,392

2,398

4.6%

19,877 19,327 2.8%

280

73

565

168

236.3% -6.1% -8.6% 29.8%

1,137

589

93.0%

5,298

5,515

-3.9%

17,136 18,248

48,316 49,829 -3.0%

869 347 211

1,210 -28.2%

3,502 1,497

3,833 1,153

9,866 4,227 1,449

9,961 -1.0% 3,093 36.7% 1,527 -5.1%

346 137

0.3%

54.0%

560

523

7.1%

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Markit.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2016 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD 2016 Through September vs. YTD 2015 Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2016 Through September Top 20 Selling Brands

13.7

Ram

30.2

Honda

10.0

U.S. Area

10.5

Dodge

20.3

Toyota

13.2

10.3

13.3

Chevrolet

Nissan

7.4

7.4

12.2

Audi

Jeep

5.4

Ram, Dodge, Chevrolet and Audi registrations increased by more than 12%.

6.2

Hyundai

8.6

Ford

12.2

5.4

Mazda

7.4

Chevrolet

11.1

4.8

7.2

Kia

Hyundai

3.9

Toyota market share in the metro area was 10.5% versus 13.2% in the nation.

4.6

Jeep

7.0

Mercedes

2.2

4.3

5.9

Nissan

Subaru

4.0 3.9

5.7

Honda

BMW

2.1

3.5

2.8

Subaru

Lexus

2.1

2.4

2.3

Acura

GMC

1.1

2.3

0.1

Audi

BMW

1.3

2.1

-0.5

Volkswagen

Mercedes

1.9

2.0

Kia

-1.0

Volkswagen

3.8

1.9

In niti

-1.7

Ford

0.8

1.9 1.9

-2.4

Mazda

Lexus

1.8

GMC

-2.9

Acura

3.3

1.6

Dodge

-3.0

Toyota

2.3

1.6

Ram

In niti

-6.4

2.8

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Markit.

Data Source: IHS Markit.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS September July‘16 – September‘16 YTDThrough September 2016 2015 % change Current Previous % change 2016 2015 % change

53,917 53,671 0.5% 178,251 168,844 5.6% 530,656 523,479 1.4 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

29,000 29,336 -1.1% 96,907 94,033 3.1% 289,860 289,914 0.0%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue Registrations -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 15.4 Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles

24,917 24,335 2.4% 81,344 74,811 8.7% 240,796 233,565 3.1%

17,998 18,777 -4.1% 59,903 58,854 1.8% 181,212 184,075 -1.6%

8,250 8,081 2.1% 27,266 25,647 6.3% 81,946 80,642 1.6%

25,101 24,347 3.1% 82,531 76,652 7.7% 242,475 235,512 3.0%

2,568 2,466 4.1% 8,551 7,691 11.2% 25,023 23,250 7.6%

1-year-old vehicles or newer

5,542 4,635 19.6% 16,558 12,640 31.0% 39,600 34,301 15.4%

4,500 4,990 -9.8% 14,031 13,691 2.5% 37,039 38,684 -4.3%

5,699 4,842 17.7% 20,329 15,165 34.1% 60,641 53,765 12.8%

2,224 2,268 -1.9% 7,607 7,152 6.4% 26,596 26,595 0.0%

2,044 1,983 3.1% 6,662 6,302 5.7% 20,470 19,846 3.1%

6-year-old vehicles or older

33,908 34,953 -3.0% 113,064 113,894 -0.7% 346,310 350,288 -1.1%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

Percent Change in Used Registrations by Vehicle Age YTD 2016 Through September vs YTD 2015

Registrations for three-year-old vehicles increased by 12.8% so far this year.

12.8

0.0

3.1

-4.3

-1.1

1-year-old or newer vehicles

2-year-old vehicles

3-year-old vehicles

4-year-old vehicles

5-year-old vehicles

6-year-old vehicles

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2016 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

July ‘16 July ‘15 Through Through %

YTD 2016

YTD 2015

July ’16 July ‘15 Through Through %

YTD 2016

YTD 2015

%

%

Sep ’16 Sep ‘15 Change Through Sep Through Sep Change

Sep ’16 Sep ‘15 Change Through Sep Through Sep change

Bronx

6,585 6,502

1% 18,908

18,062 41,843 13,080

5% 6% 0% 6% 2% 2% 3% 6% 9% 4% 3%

12,647 11,428 11% 39,170 17,356 16,398 6% 52,815

38,161 51,732

3% 2%

Brooklyn Dutchess

14,755 15,197 -3% 44,472 4,787 4,861 -2% 13,116 7,173 7,323 -2% 20,479 31,494 31,191 1% 90,169 5,963 6,387 -7% 17,248

8,293 6,951

8,410 -1% 24,396

25,106 -3% 21,342 -3%

Manhattan

20,754 -1%

6,628

5% 20,707

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

85,371 16,958

23,868 21,746 10% 69,875 10,540 10,899 -3% 31,291

67,111

4%

32,853 -5%

2,147 2,169 -1%

5,895

5,792

2,776

2,619

6%

7,815

7,723

1% 0% 5% 2%

21,079 21,631 -3% 60,204

58,456 17,096 28,832 82,668 53,312

25,368 24,314 4% 76,663

76,367 17,311 19,711

6,235 6,256

0% 18,195

6,135 6,572

5,674

8% 18,233

Staten Island

10,366 11,219 -8% 31,498 30,398 29,404 3% 85,745 19,449 19,608 -1% 54,673

6,624 -1% 20,054

Suffolk

39,489 36,655 8% 116,806 18,256 17,449 5% 52,831

113,720 3%

Westchester

52,342

1%

TOTALS

160,431 161,748 -1% 460,602 442,224 4% 178,251 168,844 6% 530,656 523,479 1%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in metro area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2016 Through September

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

19.6 15.2 11.9

16.3 13.3 12.6

13.8 10.0

10.3

12.1

12.2 12.9

13.6

17.0 13.0 13.6

12.8 12.9 11.6

11.9

11.6

14.8

9.2 5.4 5.7 4.6 2.5 3.1 3.8 8.3 4.3 2.2 5.9 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 3.3 2.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.9 1.4 1.1

8.6

8.9 5.9 8.6 7.1 7.6 4.5 2.5 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.7 0.6 1.7 3.4 1.9 2.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1

8.5

9.9 9.3 8.7 7.9 8.8 5.4 3.6 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.3 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.6 2.9 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2

8.3 6.7 7.6 5.4 4.8 3.5 5.5 7.3 5.1 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5

7.9 6.3 8.1 9.4 4.7 2.3 2.6 0.9 2.9 1.1 2.0 2.7 0.4 2.6 2.5 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.1

10.2

9.4 7.1

13.3

Jeep Ford

6.0 5.7 4.4 7.4 2.9 2.6 2.0 2.1 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.0

5.4 5.3 2.9 3.8 3.7 2.5 3.8 5.6 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 3.0 1.2 0.9 2.0 0.6 2.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2

8.1 5.3 5.2 4.4 5.8 3.6 4.7 3.8 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3

6.7 4.1 4.2 4.9 4.7 3.2 3.5 4.0 2.6 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1

6.3 7.3 4.1 5.2 3.8 6.0 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 2.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1

8.4 8.1 4.2 6.0 3.5 2.4 2.9 4.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.4 3.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0

10.3

Chevrolet Hyundai Mercedes

7.7 5.6 2.0 6.3 2.2 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.4 2.7 0.5 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1

10.8

Subaru

10.0

13.2

BMW Lexus Acura

Audi

Volkswagen

Kia

Infiniti Mazda

GMC

Dodge

Ram

Chrysler Cadillac

Land Rover

Volvo

Lincoln

Buick

Mitsubishi

Porsche

MINI Tesla

Data Source: IHS Markit.

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD 2016 Through September

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD 2016 Through September

BMW 3-Series Nissan Rogue Honda CRV Honda Civic Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Honda Accord

Toyota RAV4 Honda Civic Honda Accord Honda CRV Nissan Rogue

18,505

7,653

7,384

16,922

7,120

16,628

5,661

13,614

4,991

12,679

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue PG: 8 0 Ford Fusion Chevrolet Equinox Ford Escape Lexus RX Toyota Corolla Honda Odyssey Toyota Sienna Ford Explorer Honda Pilot Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Subaru Forester Toyota Highlander Jeep Cherokee Hyundai Sonata Ram Nissan Sentra Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Jeep Grand Cherokee 4,449

4,908

12,394

4,211

10,212

Honda Accord was the top-seller in the six-year-old or newer used vehicle market.

Mercedes C-Class Hyundai Sonata Toyota Corolla Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee

4,082

8,606

Two Compact SUVs (Rogue and CRV) were top-sellers in the new vehicle market.

3,884

6,974

3,753

6,644 6,560 6,464

3,621

3,290

Nissan Sentra Toyota Sienna BMW 5-Series

3,094 3,083

6,446 6,430 6,409

2,966 2,965

Toyota Highlander Volkswagen Jetta Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Mercedes E-Class Honda Pilot

6,027 5,917

2,782

2,420

5,780 5,771 5,617

2,375 2,372

2,219 2,118 2,076

5,499 5,397 5,365

Ford Fusion Ford Escape Ford F Series Lexus RX

2,028 2,007

4,793

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

New retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Markit.

Data Source: IHS Markit.

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, November 2016

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Markit.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Markit GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com