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Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023
Executive Summary
The completion of the gas internal market, increase of
security of supply and fostering of competition are the
main priorities outlined in the European Union’s (EU)
energy policy. The Regulation No. 347 / 2013 on guide-
lines for trans-European energy infrastructure aims to
accelerate the development of infrastructure projects
having regional importance, so called “projects of com-
mon interest” (PCI) in the certain priority corridors. The
first EU-wide List of PCIs was adopted by the European
Commission (EC) on 14 October 2013. It consists of 248
energy infrastructure projects, including 15 projects of
gas infrastructure in the BEMIP region.
If implemented, these projects will significantly change the picture of the gas
markets in the region, first of all, by interconnecting currently separate sub-regions
such as 1) Finland, 2) Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, 3) Poland, 4) Denmark and
Sweden, and integrating even four Member States (Finland, Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania) into common European gas market, and secondly providing access on a
considerable scale to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. For the countries
in the region that rely, either fully or to a large extent, on a single supplier this would
be a major shift, bringing from one side more choices and opportunities for the gas
market players, and from another side requiring adequate changes in legislation and
commercial practices of gas companies to accommodate an increased market
complexity.
With respect to the role of the gas in energy market, the expected paths differ with-
in the region – despite that the total gas demand is expected to increase by 33%
in 2023 compared to 2014 when average daily demand will be at the level of
870GWh. The increase is mainly driven by expected soaring demand in the biggest
market of the region – Poland which forecasts decreasing coal-fired power pro
duction. In some other countries, like Estonia, Latvia, Sweden and Finland increase
in grid-related gas demand is foreseen, but in the latter strongly surpassed by the
off-grid gas usage mainly supplied through LNG infrastructure. In Denmark and
Lithuania the demand is expected to drop because of increasing share of renewables
in their energy mix. The anticipated demand changes are also determining factor for
the development of gas infrastructures.
