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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |
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3.1 General Note
This assessment chapter focuses on the ability of the
European gas system to meet the supply-demand
balance under stress scenarios. The CEE GRIP provides
a look at two different stress scenarios which were not
presented in the TYNDP 2017. These stress scenarios
are a simultaneous disruption of the gas supply routes
via Ukraine and Belarus and a disruption of the Russian
gas supply source. The situation under normal condi-
tions is also presented in the chapter in order to provide
a baseline comparison as to how the CEE region is
affected by these two specific stress scenarios.
Assessment results for CEE GRIP-specific simulations are based on the
TYNDP 2017 methodology and data set.
Specifically, all data serving as the basis
for infrastructure modelling in the CEE region originate from the TYNDP 2017, and
all relevant data were collected by ENTSOG in a dedicated collection process. The
ENTSOG simulation tool was used to model the scenarios described, which ensures
consistency with the TYNDP 2017.
The ENTSOG model works on a top-down approach when countries are used as the
basic blocks interlinked by cross-border capacity. Applicable capacity is the sum of
technical capacity at interconnection points between two neighbouring countries
and the application of the “lesser-of-rule” to the values of the capacity at both sides
of the border for each interconnection point (IP). Storage facilities, national gas pro-
duction, and LNG terminals enter the model within the corresponding country and
not according to their territorial location. Further, the model assumes that each mod-
elled country represents a single entry/exit zone. Therefore, the consideration of
internal interconnections is limited. The European approach does not consider
potential internal bottlenecks, gas quality issues, and the adaptation of national
infrastructure to disruption scenarios. As stated in the TYNDP 2017, the assessment
is carried out from a European perspective, under the assumption of perfect market
functioning. This ensures a focus on conclusions where solving the identified gap
cannot be managed by market or regulatory rules and would presumably require in-
frastructure development with cross-border significance.
Regarding the planned infrastructure projects, only the full years of a project’s
operation are considered in the assessment. This means that the first full year of
operation used in the assessment is the first full calendar year following the expect-
ed commissioning date (the expected capacity increment). All projects related to the
CEE region are listed in Chapter 2 – Infrastructure Projects in the CEE Region. For
more details concerning a particular infrastructure project, please see the CEE GRIP
Annex A – Infrastructure Projects.