GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |

EXISTING

INFRASTRUCTURE

LOW

Minimum development of

infrastructure common to

all levels

ADVANCED

2nd PCI LIST

Assessment as a whole of the projects

belonging to each Infrastructure Level

HIGH

FID PROJECTS

EXISTING

INFRASTRUCTURE

EXISTING

INFRASTRUCTURE

EXISTING

INFRASTRUCTURE

ADVANCED

NON-FID

PROJECTS

LESS-ADVANCED

NON-FID

PROJECTS

ADVANCED

NON-FID

PROJECTS

2nd PCI LIST

NON-FID

PROJECTS

Assessment of the

Infrastructure

needs

Figure 3.1:

Infrastructure Levels (Source: TYNDP 2017)

All assessment results prepared for the CEE GRIP can be found in the CEE GRIP

Annex B - Modelling Results. The following figure describes the differences between

the infrastructure levels.

According to the TYNDP 2017 methodology, the Remaining Flexibility (RF) indicator

measures the resilience of a zone (at the country level). The indicator is calculated

for high demand situations as the additional share of demand each country is able

to cover before an infrastructure or supply limitation is reached. This calculation is

made independently for each country, meaning that they do not share European

supply flexibility. The higher the indicator value is, the better the resilience. In cas-

es where countries experience disrupted demand, the Remaining Flexibility is equal

to zero.

The Disrupted Rate (DR) represents the share of the gas demand that cannot be

satisfied. It is calculated as a daily volume. The level of disruption is assessed

assuming cooperative behaviour between European countries in order to mitigate its

relative impact. This means that countries try to reduce the Disrupted Rate of other

countries by sharing the load. Non-alignment of the Disrupted Rate between

countries indicates an infrastructure bottleneck. The distribution of Disrupted Rate

among countries is therefore a strong indication of infrastructure needs.

In this chapter, you will find a presentation of assessment results for the CEE region

for the Peak Day of the Blue Transition and the Green Evolution demand scenarios

for the LOW, 2

PCI, and HIGH infrastructure levels with and without a simultane-

ous disruption of the gas supply routes via Ukraine and Belarus and a disruption of

the Russian gas supply source. Comprehensive results for all modelled specific

disruption cases for CEE GRIP can be found in CEE GRIP Annex B – Modelling

Results. The results are presented for the years 2017, 2020 and 2025.