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Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017
Image courtesy of GRTgaz Deutschland
CEE GRIP REGIONAL N-1 ANALYSIS
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The CEE GRIP Regional N-1 analysis covers gas supply disruption cases
through Ukraine and Belarus for the winter and summer periods. The assess-
ment is based on the N-1 methodology according to Regulation (EU) 994/2010,
which was adjusted to enable the application to be used for CEE GRIP purpos-
es.
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In the winter period 2017/2018 under the Ukrainian gas route disruption case,
Bulgaria and Romania do not meet the basic N-1 criterion (the result has to be
equal to or greater than one). The implementation of planned infrastructure
projects in upcoming years can solve this situation.
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Due to geographical reasons, the disruption of supplies via Belarus only affects
Poland, but the assessment indicates a decreasing dependency over the entire
time span for both winter and summer periods.
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Almost all countries in the CEE region obtain satisfactory N-1 calculation results
in the summer period, as each country is able to cover its own gas demand and
meet the injection requirements of underground storage facilities when the two
analysed disruption cases are considered. With regard to the main findings, we
can enumerate the following situations:
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For Bulgaria during the Ukraine disruption scenario in summer 2017, such
a disruption would cause a lack of sourcing for Bulgaria, impeding the filling
of underground storage facilities. This situation could lead to a deepening of
the problem identified during winter 2017/2018, because the underground
storage facilities would be empty.
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Some potential problems were also identified in Hungary and Romania in
summer 2017, if a gas supply disruption via Ukraine lasted more than 45
and 138 days, respectively.
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For Hungary during summer 2020, a Ukrainian disruption should not last
longer than 37 days.
All these identified problems would be fully solved by the commissioning of the
planned projects in the following years.