84
Improving Global Quality of Life
Through Optimum Use and Innovation of Welding and Joining Technologies
Figure 9.2
Forecast of the energy consumption per energy source
(
Note: MBDOE stands for million barrels per day of oil equivalents)
(
Reproduced courtesy: ExxonMobil)
The energy demand will increase 50% by 2030. 80% of energy demand growth is forecast to be in non-OECD
countries. Oil, gas and coal will remain predominant energy sources with roughly an 80% share of total
energy. Wind power has a high annual growth 11.1% and it is attracting a lot of interest and very ambitious
investments plans are set. There are experts, however, judging these as unrealistic. Instead, there are beliefs
that investment in nuclear power will be more acceptable even with the recent problems in Japan. This will
definitely result in increased demand for R&D in materials and processes to meet the stricter requirements
for quality and safety.
New discoveries tend to be in deepwater (>300 m) harsh environments (both climate and product-wise)
Transportation of fuels will become of increasing strategic importance. These challenges for exploitation
necessitate the wide-spread use of new materials, both in terms of strength to weight ratio and corrosion
resistance. With novel materials, or materials combinations, comes the requirement for reliable, enduring
and
cost-effective joining methods
as the key enabling technologies for their successful introduction.
IIW’s position as a worldwide expert network
contributes significantly to the dissemination of relevant
know-how and experience. Of particular relevance are: new developments in high-productivity arc welding,
especially for pipelines; repair technologies; advanced manufacturing concepts; power beam and hybrid
processes; and dissimilar materials joining. In addition to the needs and challenges for joining processes,
there is the requirement for the safe through-life performance of offshore structures. Hence, in this sector,
improved weldability and life-long structural integrity of new high strength materials and welded advanced
structures operating in extreme service conditions will continue to be key issues in future applications.
9.1.1
Energy consumption and power generation
The Exxon forecasts of the energy consumption per energy source (
Figure 9.2
)
and region (
Figure 9.3
)
and as
well the development of light vehicle fleet (
Figure 9.4
)
show a very high growth in Asia and specially in China.
The economic drivers such as gross domestic product and population are the main ones.
Oil and gas Remain predominant
Total energy Other energy Wind & solar
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
80
60
40
20
0
4
3
2
1
0
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.4%
11.1%
1.3%
1.9%
1.4%
MBDOE
MBDOE
Average Growth / Yr
2000 - 2030
1.6%
Other
Coal
Gas
Oil
Wind & Solar
Biomass,
MSW
Hydro
Nuclear
Wind
Solar
12.4%
9.5%
