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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017 |
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6.1 Introduction
Historically, the transmission flows through the
TSOs’ relevant pipeline systems along the Corridor
are oriented from north to south: from Belgium and
the Netherlands into Germany, Switzerland, France
and Italy.
Nevertheless, forward-flows especially in the part for the Corridor towards Italy have
recently shown a reduction trend
1)
(annual import flows at IP between Italy and Swit-
zerland decreased by 40% between 2014 and 2016). Looking at short-term flow be-
haviour at the beginning of 2017, gas flows along the axis became more and more
reactive to short term price signals generated by the main hubs of Northern and
Southern Europe. The flows patterns registered in the first two months of 2017,
characterised by exceptionally persistent cold conditions across Europe, show that
Italian daily imports have hit a high near to 60 mcm/day on 11 January – when the
premium between PSV and TTF reached a maximum of 7.6 €/MWh – and jumped
down till near zero flows less than one month later (7 February, when the PSV pre-
mium to TTF was down to 0.4 €/MWh, see Figure 6.1 for an example referred to the
period January-February 2017)
2)
.
0
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Imports (GWh/d)
Imports via Austria
(Tarvisio / Arnoldstein)
Imports via Switzerland
(Griespass)
Algerian Imports
(Mazara del Vallo)
Libyan Imports (Gela)
01/01/2017
08/01/2017
15/01/2017
29/01/2017
05/02/2017
26/02/2017
19/02/2017
Figure 6.1:
Import flows to Italy at cross-border IPs during early 2017 (January cold snap and
following period) (Source: Snam Rete Gas)
1) Annual import flows to Italy at Griespass IP fell down from around 11.5 bcm (2014, year of the last GRIP edition) to a
historical minimum of 6.7 bcm (2016, last available full year), recording a −40% in this time horizon.
2) According to market participants polled by ICIS, flows from North Africa – and potentially from other sources as the ones
from Southern Corridor – could “bring a change to Italian import profiles. In particular, flow from northern Europe, which
are the most flexible of Italy’s sources of supply, were expected to be most affected” (Source: ICIS ESGM, 17 March 2017).