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South-North Corridor GRIP 2017
7.2.4 SUPPLY AND PRICE CONFIGURATIONS
The same supply approach followed for TYNDP 2017 has been adopted in order to
define the infrastructure utilisation rates (pipeline, storages and LNG plants) and
different import source potentials.
With relation to disruption cases, particular relevance has been reserved to:
\\
Ukraine
\\
Belarus
\\
Norway
\\
Algeria
As for price configurations assumptions, the cases with cheaper North African
(Algerian and Libyan) and Azeri gas have been investigated as well the cases where
flows from Russia and/or Norway would represent the most expensive sources.
Finally, specific supply disruptions have been coupled with source price configura-
tions, as shown in Figure 7.2 by the arrow linking the disruptions and the supply
source prices columns.
The mix of the supply and price configurations considered in this network modelling
analysis should not be interpreted as predictions for the future. Nevertheless, these
cases have been designed for simulating situations triggering flows patterns,
especially along the South-North Corridor route. In fact, due to its perfect market
functioning assumption and other necessary simplifications, the NeMo model is not
able to adequately represent market features reflecting hub prices differentials
generated by various important demand drivers and/or infrastructure capacity
restrictions (e. g. local energy demand spikes and/or specific facilities unavailability
generating tensions on prices).
Figure 7.2:
Schematic summary of the simulation cases for the 3
rd
SNC GRIP edition
Years
2017
Ukraine
AZ
NO
DZ/LY
NO/RU
AZ/DZ/LY
Cheaper
More expensive
Low
2
nd
PCI List
Blue
Design
Case
(Peak
demand)
Average
demand
2020
Ukraine +
Belarus
2030
Norway
Algeria
Demand
Scenario
Infrastructure
Level
Climatic
Conditions
Disruptions
Supply Sources
Prices
+