90 / 124
90 |
South-North Corridor GRIP 2017
Table 7.2:
Boundary conditions for case study 1c and 1d
ITs
IT
ITe
CH
DEn
FRn
AT
2020 LOW Disruption Ukraine–Belarus
AZ-DZ-LY max
ITs
IT
ITe
CH
DEn
FRn
AT
2030 PCI Disruption Ukraine–Belarus
AZ-DZ-LY max
Figure 7.5:
Case study 1c flow patterns
Figure 7.6:
Case study 1d flow patterns
7.3.2 CASE STUDY 1C/1D
CASE DESCRIPTION
Year
c) 2020
d) 2030
Climatic conditions
Peak Demand: Northern EU
Average Winter: Rest of EU
Supply disruptions
Russian flows (UA+BY)
Infrastructure level
c) Low
d) PCI
Supply prices
Southern sources cheaper (AZ+DZ+LY)
Capacity
CH>FRn bundled firm
Compared to the previous cases 1a and 1b, the following cases adopt the hypothe-
sis to have different climatic conditions across Europe, relaxing the assumption to
have the overall continent under really tight peak demand conditions. Additionally,
the capacity at Oltingue IP from Switzerland to France has been considered as fully
(bundled) firm. The other boundary conditions stay the same and the flows patterns
are reported respectively for 2020 under Low infrastructure level and for 2030 under
PCI infrastructure level.
In these cases, the reverse flow towards Northern Europe appears complete already
in 2020 – when the described SNC reverse flow projects are all commissioned – and
provides even more relevant results in 2030, with the commissioning of the PCI
project “Adriatica Line” (264GWh/d), making higher volumes available for export
potentially coming from new sources (e. g. Azeri gas through TAP and/or additional
volumes from the East-Mediterranean basin/Middle East and North Africa).