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Table 5.13:
Evolution of the LNG exports per area 2014 – 2035
Table 5.14:
Split of the LNG exports destination by area
5.3.4.6 LNG supply scenarios
The range defined by the potential import scenarios for LNG reflects the particular-
ly high uncertainty in the level of LNG supplies to Europe.
Maximum LNG scenario
The maximum supply scenario has been defined on the assumption of an increas-
ing global LNG market, with Europe being a premium market. This means that
European gas prices are comparatively higher than the price in competing markets
and so they can attract LNG supplies.
The methodology used to define the maximum supply scenario applies the split
between different current destination clauses (Europe / non-Europe / flexible) to the
projected evolution of the LNG exports between 2014 and 2035. Europe is assumed
to receive the LNG when the destination market is Europe as well as when the LNG
is defined as flexible.
The projection of future world LNG supplies in 2035 (BP Energy Outlook 2030) is
830 bcma. The breakdown of this value per area is calculated by applying the
following production share per area derived from the ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
2040 report: 30% Atlantic basin, 20% Middle East, 50% Pacific basin. The table
below contains the LNG production per area according to the existing contracts in
2014 (intermediate years have been interpolated).
EVOLUTION OF THE LNG EXPORTS PER AREA 2014–2035
bcma
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
ATLANTIC BASIN
113
119
152
184
217
249
MIDDLE EAST
155
156
158
161
163
166
PACIFIC BASIN
169
193
240
298
356
415
The LNG production split in the following table is derived from the shares of the
destination clauses of the existing contracts as in 2014.
SPLIT OF THE LNG EXPORTS DESTINATION BY AREA
%
to EU
to non-EU
Flexible
ATLANTIC BASIN
44
30
26
MIDDLE EAST
23
69
8
PACIFIC BASIN
0
96
4