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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Table 5.15:
Split of the maximum supply scenario per producing area
Table 5.16:
Potential minimum LNG scenario
Applying these percentages to the LNG exports per area, and assuming that “Flexi-
ble” LNG is delivered to Europe, the maximum potential supply scenario for LNG is
as follows:
SPLIT OF THE MAXIMUM SUPPLY SCENARIO
PER PRODUCING AREA
bcma
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
ATLANTIC BASIN
79
84
107
131
154
177
MIDDLE EAST
48
48
49
49
50
50
PACIFIC BASIN
7
8
10
12
14
17
TOTAL EU
134
140
166
192
218
244
Intermediate LNG scenario
The intermediate supply scenario for LNG is calculated as the average between the
minimum and the maximum.
Minimum LNG scenario
The potential minimum LNG scenario has been defined on the assumption that
current low levels of LNG imports cannot be sustained under a scenario of decreas-
ing indigenous production and either increasing or sustained gas demand, and
would not be consistent with increasing LNG regasification capacity. This scenario
has been defined from the average LNG imports in 2011, 2012 and 2013, and is
kept constant for the future.
POTENTIAL MINIMUM LNG SCENARIO
Year
LNG imports (GWh/d)
Average 2011 – 2013
2011
2,427
1,744 GWh/d
2012
1,689
2013
1,205