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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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6.1 Introduction
ENTSOG has carried out an extensive assessment of
the European gas system in order to identify potential
investment needs and solutions. This assessment
represents the TYNDP-Step of the Energy System-
Wide Cost-Benefit Analysis (ESW-CBA) and as such
it focuses on different levels of infrastructure
development rather than on single projects.
The analysis of project benefits will be carried out for
each candidate Project of Common Interest submitted
by promoters as part of the Project-Specific-Step of
the ESW-CBA after the release of the Report. For this
second PCI selection it is ENTSOG that will apply the
methodology quantifying project benefits.
6.1.1 GENERAL CONSIDERATION ON
ASSESSMENT RESULTS
In preparation to this individual assessment, the Report focuses on the Low and
High Infrastructure scenarios. The assessment under the PCI one mostly served as
a feedback loop to previous selection and results are very similar than under the
High scenario.
As a comparison with TYNDP 2013, the assessment has been extended. First the
considered period now covers a 21-year time horizon instead of a 10-year time
horizon. This has increased the need to better capture future uncertainty through
the selection of meaningful scenarios. Then the scope of the assessment is wider
through the introduction of new indicators and financial analysis giving additional
perspectives on the European gas system. New scenarios have been introduced for
demand, infrastructure and gas prices.
The assessment also benefits from an enhanced modelling approach, which consid-
ers fuel prices, the dynamic simulation of gas demand for power generation and the
seasonality of gas demand.
The following assessment results should not be understood as any form of forecast
but rather as a robust approach identifying a potential future range of scenarios. This
means that the evolution of indicator values over time and from one infrastructure
scenario compared to another is more meaningful than the absolute values. In
addition, there is no threshold defined for most indicators and this prevents the
absolute definition of investment gaps. In the past, ENTSOG drew the attention of
markets and institutions to this situation and the fact that defining a threshold level
for triggering investment is beyond the remit TSOs and ENTSOG.
The results included in this chapter have been selected on the basis that they illus-
trate the main trends in the evolution of the European gas system. Detailed results
are available in Annex E. The description of the modelling approach, indicators and
financial analysis is available in Annex F.