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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
6.1.2 INFRASTRUCTURE-RELATED
MARKET INTEGRATION
ENTSOG has considered the full implementation of European regulations, which
should result in gas flows reacting to price signals in every country. When consider-
ing the physical dependence on import sources, two approaches were analysed; one
covered a focus on the national balance and one with a greater focus on cross-border flows.
Some limitations have been defined at supply source level in order to reflect possible
contractual limitations such as contracted quantities and take-or-pay clauses.
The advantage of this assumption is to avoid the identification of erroneous
investment gaps that might result from commercial arrangements. Such constraints
should not be solved by infrastructure with long economic lifetime as this might
create the risk of stranded assets.
The Report focuses on the infrastructure component of market integration. The
modelling approach enables the assessment of the extent to which gas infrastruc-
ture (transmission, storage and LNG terminal) supports security of supply, compe-
tition and sustainability. In order to provide easily understandable results, ENTSOG
has updated and developed its set of indicators together with the introduction of the
financial analysis as a preliminary step of the project specific assessment. Indicators
and financial analysis cover many different perspectives of the three pillars of the EU
Energy Policy. It is often difficult to link a specific indicator to a single aspect of the
EU Energy Policy; for example a project bringing a new source in one region will also
improve source diversification and hence security of supply and competition.
6.2 General trend
The extension of the time horizon up to twenty-one
years implies that the second part the Report covers
a period likely to be very different from the current
situation. In addition to the evolution of demand, the
need for imports will depend on the availability of
supply sources and the corresponding development of
gas infrastructures. In order to identify the main drivers
the analysis of such general trends is necessary.
6.2.1 EVOLUTION OF GAS DEMAND AND CO
2
EMISSIONS
The following graphs represent the average daily gas demand and CO
2
emissions
resulting from the modelling of the Reference Case for the FID infrastructure scenar-
io under the Green and Grey Global context. The results will be the same under the
Non-FID scenario at the exception of Cyprus and Malta for which connecting
projects are still not decided.
The fact that emissions marginally change between the two infrastructure scenarios
illustrates that the impact of infrastructure projects on gas prices are not of the scale
of the gas, coal and CO
2
price differential as defined by the Global Context.