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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Figure 6.5:
Supply shares under the 1-day Design Case – Green and Grey scenario
2015 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2020 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2025 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2035 Low
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
National Production (NP)
Caspian area (AZ)
LNG
Norway (NO)
Russia (RU)
UGS
Algeria (DZ)
Libya (LY)
2020 High
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2025 High
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
2035 High
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DC UGS max
DC UGS min
Supply shares
The graphs for Average day indicate the increasing predominance of Russian gas
and LNG, even when more expensive than other sources, as they have to be used
at a significant level. The additional supplies (Caspian gas, Romanian Black Sea,
Cyprus national production, together with shale and biogas) under the High scenar-
io can significantly mitigate the increasing dependence on Russian gas and LNG.
This confirms the findings of the supply chapter where the increasing need for
imports can only be met by Russian gas and LNG, which have increasing availabil-
ity over the time horizon, when Norwegian imports are decreasing and other import
sources are too low.
This trend also appears on the graphs for the 1-day Design Case where it can also
be noted the increasing minimum share in the coverage of peak demand along the
time horizon. Under the High infrastructure scenarios additional supplies enable a
lower minimum share of UGS in the coverage of the peak demand.
The next set of graphs illustrates the range of use of each import source compared
to their minimum and maximum potential scenario under:
\\
annual condition (Average day):
–
–
the dots represent the deliverability of the sources as a percentage of their
peak deliverability
–
–
the bars represent the range of use of the sources, the lower limits are set
as the use of the sources under the expensive price configuration and the
upper limits are set as the use of the sources under the cheap price
configuration