144 / 232
144 |
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
0
100
80
60
40
20
%
2015
Low High Low High Low High Low High
2020
2025
2030
2035
Used under UGS minimization
Additional use under UGS maximization
Not-Used
Green Scenario
30
25
28
18
30
18
32
18
33
17
22
21
22
22
21
23
25
18
Figure 6.10:
Seasonal variation of the WGV (% of capacity). Green scenario (left) and Grey scenario (right)
0
100
80
60
40
20
%
2015
Low High Low High Low High Low High
2020
2025
2030
2035
Used under UGS minimization
Additional use under UGS maximization
Not-Used
30
25
28
22
28
22
29
20
29
24
25
20
23
20
21
22
21
24
Grey Scenario
This flexibility is very high in 2015 but goes reducing along the time horizon under
the Green scenario. This indicates a tighter supply situation and less flexibility in the
supply mix. This evolution starts later under the Grey scenario where lower demand
requires less imports. The flexibility of large sources is also lower under the Design
Case compared to the Average day despite the contribution of UGS.
Both for the Average day and the 1-day Design Case, the commissioning of Non-FID
projects together with the connection of new sources help to maintain a high
flexibility of the gas supply mix.
For the rest of the assessment chapter only the maximization of the UGS scenario
was used. In respect of investment gap identification, this represents a conservative
approach when considering the uncertainty around peak deliverability of import
sources in the long term.
6.2.3 EVOLUTION OF USE OF UGS ON SEASONAL BASIS
Following graphs represent the share of the European aggregated UGS working gas
volume (WGV) being injected and withdrawn during the year according to the
simulations and driven by the seasonal swing of demand. Such volume should not
be confused with the highest level reached by UGS over the year. As the model does
not consider either the anticipation of a prolonged security of supply crisis or daily
variability of power generation, the use of storage is only driven by cover of the sea-
sonal swing and therefore only one annual cycle is considered. In addition sufficient
gas should be present in the storages in order to ensure sufficient deliverability in
case of peak demand or supply stress.
The graphs present the use of the WGV considering two UGS scenarios, where all
seasonal swing is met by UGS (UGS maximization) and another where most of the
swing is met by imports (UGS minimization).
The commissioning of UGS projects by 2020 could result in a decrease of the use
of each individual UGS facility as the need for storage will be spread across more
facilities. Beyond 2020 the use of storage would grow under the FID scenario as a
result of the combined effect of no new UGS projects, decreasing indigenous
production and no additional supplies such as Caspian gas. Small differences
between the two Global Contexts are driven by higher relative seasonal swing in Grey
and less competition for cheap supply due to overall lower demand in Grey, which
could be stored in UGS.