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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
2015 Low
2020 Low
2025 Low
2035 Low
2020 High
2025 High
2035 High
Russian gas expensive
Evolution of the GPI compared to the Reference price configuration
>10%
8% – 10%
5% – 8%
3% – 5%
0% – 3%
Please take note that part of the benefits of Non-FID projects has already been
considered in the decrease of the GPI of the Reference price configuration between
Low and High scenarios. Therefore the level of the indicator for a given country
should not be compared across the scenario but with the other countries for a
given scenario.
2015 Low
2020 Low
2025 Low
2020 High
2025 High
Russian gas expensive
Evolution of the GPI compared
to the Reference price configuration
>10%
8% – 10%
5% – 8%
3% – 5%
0% – 3%
Please take note that part of the benefits of Non-FID projects has alr
considered in the decrease of the GPI of the Reference price configur
Low and High scenarios. Therefore the level of the indicator for a giv
should not be comared across the scenario but with the other countr
given scenario.
The results of this analysis should not be considered as an actual price forecast. In
line with the rest of this Report results are influenced by the assumption of a perfect
market functioning and a single import price curve per source.
The evolution of the Gas Price Index at Zone level has been analysed along the
season (Average Summer day, Average Winter day, 1-day Design Case and 2-week
Uniform Risk) for each of the thirteen price configurations for a given Green or Grey
global scenario. Only the Russian, Norwegian and LNG expensive price configura-
tions show significant results (the expensive source is 20% higher than the other
sources).
The following maps illustrate the evolution of the GPI of the Average Winter day
under these three price configurations compared to the Reference Price configura-
tion. The GPI under the Reference Price configuration is not the same for the Low
and High Infrastructure scenarios nor between Green and Grey scenarios therefore
the results should only be compared along the time dimension.
The GPI for countries where demand disruption has been identified is less impact-
ed by the price configuration as a consequence of the curtailed demand (e. g.
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia).
Guidance for map interpretation:
AVERAGE WINTER DAY GPI FOR BULGARIA AS FOUNDED FOR EVERY COUNTRY IN ANNEX F
EUR / GWh / d
Price configuration
GPI evolution
Reference
RU expensive
Low
20,284
23,410
(23,410 – 20,284) / 20,284 = 15%
High
19,868
21,160
(21,160 – 19,868) / 19,868 = 7%
This example also shows in which extent the different level of GPI between the
Reference price configuration between Low and High Infrastructure scenarios
prevents direct comparison of results.