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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Nuclear, Hydro, Wind, Solar, Others
THERMAL
GAP
NET ELECTRICTITY
GENERATION
–
=
FIXED GENERATION
Figure 4.12:
Calculation of the thermal gap
THERMAL
GAP
COAL
GAS
GAS
or
=
COAL
Figure 4.13:
Gas/coal breakdown of the thermal gap
0
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
GW
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Nuclear
Wind offshore
Coal
Gas
Other
Wind onshore
Hydro – pump
Hydro – norm
Solar
Oil
Vision 1
Figure 4.14:
Power generation installed capacities for Vision 1 (Slow Progression) and for Vision 3 (Green Transition)
(Source ENTSO-E)
0
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
GW
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Nuclear
Wind offshore
Coal
Gas
Other
Wind onshore
Hydro – pump
Hydro – norm
Solar
Oil
Vision 3
On this basis, the electricity potentially generated from gas is estimated in two steps:
1. Definition of the Thermal gap
The thermal gap is the amount of electricity to be generated from coal and gas. It
depends on the net electricity required minus the calculated electricity generated by
the other sources, originating either from nuclear energy or from renewables.
2. Split of the thermal gap between gas and coal.
The split of the thermal gap between gas and coal depends on their respective pric-
es under the simulated market conditions and on constraints, such as the installed
capacities and the maximum and minimum technical limits. The combination of the
technical and economic factors will lead to a range of gas use.
The following tables show the evolution of the generation capacity mix under each
vision. As ENTSO-E’s TYNDP is limited to 2030 the values from 2030 until 2035
have been considered constant. The capacity scenarios in the medium term have
been taken from ENTSO-E’s Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2013
(SO&AF 2013), and the years not covered by any of these publications have been
estimated by interpolation.