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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
51
0
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
TWh/y
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Vision 3 max
Vision 3 min
Vision 1 max
Vision 1 min
Figure 4.16:
Gas demand for power generation (left). EU gas-fired facilities, minimum and maximum yearly load-factors (right)
0
100
80
60
40
20
%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Vision 3 max
Vision 3 min
Vision 1 max
2008 – 2012 range
Vision 1 min
Image courtesy of FGSZ
4.3.2.2 Gas for power generation “Vision 1” vs. “Vision 3”
Aggregated gas demand for power generation could vary within a range depending
on gas, coal and CO ² emission prices and on technical limits. The following figures
show the evolution of gas demand for power generation under Vision 1 (Slow Pro-
gress) and Vision 3 (Green Transition). In both visions, gas demand grows over time.
Gas demand is higher for Vision 3 and the divergence between the two visions in-
creases in the long term.
The range between minimum and maximum demand is over 100% in 2015 and
decreases in time for both visions. This effect is clearer for Vision 1, for which the
range is limited to 30% of the minimum by 2035, as a result of reduced installed
coal and gas power generation capacity.
The figures also show the evolution of the average minimum and average maximum
yearly load-factors for gas generation facilities. While the maximum load-factors are
quite stable in the long term at around 50%, minimum load-factors increase from a
25% level in 2015 to almost 40% by 2030.