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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 |
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0
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Vision 3 peak
Vision 1 peak
Green TSO Grey TSO
Figure 4.23:
Peak gas demand for power generation
0
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Nuclear
Wind offshore
Other
Wind onshore
Hydro – pump
Hydro – norm
Solar
Oil
Vision 1
Figure 4.24:
Power generation from alternative sources on the peak day
0
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Nuclear
Wind offshore
Other
Wind onshore
Hydro – pump
Hydro – norm
Solar
Oil
Vision 1
Figure 4.25:
Generation load-factors, of alternative sources on a peak day
0
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
GWh/d
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Nuclear
Wind offshore
Other
Wind onshore
Hydro – pump
Hydro – norm
Solar
Oil
Vision 3
0
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Nuclear
Wind offshore
Other
Wind onshore
Hydro – pump
Hydro – norm
Solar
Oil
Vision 3
4.3.3.2 Gas for power generation
“Vision 1” vs. “Vision 3”
The peak gas demand for power generation will strong-
ly increase over the next 20 years under both Vision 1
and Vision 3. The growth in Vision 3 is significantly
stronger than in Vision 1, with a total growth up to 46%
over the 20-year period. Under Vision 1 most of the
increase occurs by 2025 and this level is sustained in
the long term. Under Vision 3 the growth is sustained
until 2030. The TSOs’ submissions for the Grey sce-
nario are largely consistent with Vision 1, whereas the
submissions corresponding to the Green scenario are
slightly lower than Vision 3. (see figure 4.23)
The evolution of the peak gas demand for power gener-
ation is mostly driven by the evolution of electricity de-
mand and on the development of alternative generation
technologies. The generation from such sources ac-
cording to ENTSO-E Visions is illustrated by figure 4.24.
The peak electricity generation from these alternative
sources mainly depends on the evolution of installed
capacities given that load factors stay stable over time.
These load factors are very similar in both Visions 1
and 3 as shown in figure 4.25.