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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 | 69
Table 4.7: Considered emission factors for the different fuels for power generation
for the variable sources
0
400
200
600
800
1,200
1,000
Mio t CO2
2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2040 2045 2050
DGENER Vision 1 – Gas predominance Vision 1 – Coal predominance
Vision 3 – Gas predominance Vision 3 – Coal predominance
Figure 4.41: Estimated CO ² emissions from the power generation sector
4.4.2 GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS
The climate targets apply to overall GHG emissions, including the emissions
associated with all energy consumption, including households, industry and
transportation. The estimation of CO ² emissions in ENTSOG’s TYNDP is limited to
gas, coal and oil in the power generation sector.
While the demand for oil in ENTSOG’s scenarios is fixed according to the methodol-
ogy, the demand for gas and coal depend on market conditions. Consequently, the
scenarios include a potential range of demand for both fuels. Two extreme emissions
estimates have been defined:
\\the high case represents coal predominance
\\the lower case represents favorable market conditions for gas over coal
To calculate the emissions in ENTSOG’s scenarios, the following emission factors
have been used:
CONSIDERED EMISSION FACTORS FOR THE
DIFFERENT FUELS FOR POWER GENERATION
Gas 200 kg/MWh
Coal 350 kg/MWh
Oil 280 kg/MWh
Annual Emissions have been calculated for the fossil fuel power generation data in
the report Energy trends to 2050 from DGENER (update December 2013) using the
same emission factors and are shown in the figure below. For simplification purposes,
ENTSOG has disregarded emissions associated with the power generation sectors in
Cyprus and Malta, as they are not connected with the European gas system under
the low infrastructure scenario. ENTSOG scenarios include Switzerland due to its
interconnections to EU countries.
As shown in the following, predominant use of gas over coal significantly reduces the
CO ² emissions. A reduction of 23% in Vision 3 or 36% in Vision 1 would be required
for the period 2035 – 2050, in order to achieve the 2050 emissions target. Despite
the high RES in the GREEN scenario, if coal is predominant in filling the thermal gap,
the emissions will always be higher than in the DGENER scenario. It should be noted
that the gap between the upper and the lower case decreases over time in both sce-
narios. This is due to decreasing coal-fired power generation installed capacities.