31
Sea-level rise
Metres
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0
1000
100
10
1
0.1
no additional efforts undetaken
strong efforts to protect coastal populations against floods
Source: H. Ahlenius, GEO Ice and Snow, 2007, based on Nicholls, R.J. and
Lowe, J.A., 2006.
more protection efforts than today
Note: The upper margin of each band shows the amount of
people affected in the A2 scenario according to which global
population will reach 14 thousand million by 2080 with the
lowest GDP of all IPCC scenarios. Therefore little capacity
exists to adapt, and more people will be affected by floods.
The lower end of each curve shows the impact for the A1/B1
scenario assuming the highest per captia income and world
population at 8 thousand million, allowing for higher
investments in the protection of the population.
Population flooded in coastal areas in 2080
Million people per year (logarithmic scale)
Figure 12. Projected population flooded in coastal areas by 2080
(see text).
Number of disasters per year
Source: CRED Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2006, 2007.
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
1900
1980
1980 1985 1990 1995
2000
2000
1920 1940 1960
2010
2005 2010
250
Cyclones
Floods
Earthquakes
Earthquakes
All disasters
All disasters include:
drought, earthquake,
extreme temperatures,
famine, flood, insect
infestation, slides,
volcanic eruption, wave
and surge, wild fires,
wind storm.
Much of the increase in the number of hazardous
events reported is probably due to significant
improvements in information access and also to
population growth, but the number of floods and
cyclones reported is still rising compared to
earthquakes. Is global warming affecting the
frequency of natural hazards?
Earthquakes
versus climatic disasters
Trends in number of reported disasters
Figure 11. Trends in number of reported disasters
(see text).
