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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026
0
800
400
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
200
600
1,600
1,400
1,000
1,200
TWh/y
Final
Power generation
+9.09% -4.28%
+4.75%
+6.46%
+1.65%
+14.80%
+4.72%
+2.76%
+19.48%
+7.25%
-2.64%
-3.84%
-2.85%
-10.52%
-4.81%
-2.97%
-18.29%
-6.50%
-8.81%
-23.75%
-11.92%
72.84%
27.16%
26.67%
73.33%
26.98%
73.02%
25.59%
74.41%
23.04%
76,96%
20.54%
79.16%
23.30%
76.70%
26.85%
73.15%
Figure 3.4:
Evolution of Southern Corridor yearly demand in the period 2009 – 2016 and its breakdown
3.2 Annual Demand Breakdown
Figure 3.4 shows the annual demand breakdown of the Southern Corridor Region
for the last seven years together with their percentage evolution. The chart is broken
down into Final (Residential, Commercial, Industrial & Transport) demand com-
pared to Power Generation demand. We may see the downward trend that prevailed
in the last five years, mainly in the Power Generation sector. On one hand cheap coal
combined with low carbon prices from the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) have
made it, during part of this period, attractive to make use of coal fired instead of gas
fired power plants. On the other hand, progression of Renewable Energy Sources
(RES) may have reduced overall demand of Gas for power generation although they
support the role of CCGTs in the stability of electrical systems due to the high inter-
mittency of power production from RES. However this downward trend was reversed
in 2015 due to the decrease of the oil price which, to some extent led to a decrease
of gas price. This reversal was confirmed also in 2016 and similar positive consump-
tion patterns have been detected also in the first part of 2017. Gas demand is also
expected to be increased due to the phasing out of nuclear plants and the pressure
to reduce pollution from coal fired plants. Bio-methane is one more promising factor
for the longer term.
The historical data in figure 3.5 illustrates, that annual temperatures and economic
downturn also heavily influence gas demand. This is due to the high percentage of
households (in most countries) that rely on gas for heating, as demand increases
when outdoor temperatures decrease. Since annual weather conditions cannot be
forecasted, such extremes are not included in annual demand forecasts. In the
same way, economic growth rates can only be reasonably assumed during forecast-
ing, without the possibility to anticipate negative or positive unexpected shocks. This
should be borne in mind when comparing actual data and forecasts.