ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017

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Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017

Network Assessment

South Gas Regional Investment Plan 2017– deeply analyses the main results

regarding the South Region obtained in the Network Assessment chapter from the

ENTSOG TYNDP 2017.

The results of the ENTSOG TYNDP assessment give an overall assessment of infra-

structure investment needs at a European level. Those are divided into areas defined

as: security of supply, competition, sustainability and market integration. These

pillars are supported by a set of different indicators which can be combined by the

European Commission in order to evaluate the benefits of a specific project.

7.2.1 REMAINING FLEXIBILITY & DISRUPTED RATE

Disrupted Rate

In the South Region, no problems of disrupted rate have been identified for any

demand scenario or disruption case in TYNDP 2017.

Remaining Flexibility

This indicator measures resilience at country level and is calculated as the additional

share of demand each country is able to cover before an infrastructure or supply

limitation is reached. Demand is set on design case. The higher the indicator value

is, the better the resilience. In case where countries experience disrupted demand,

the Remaining Flexibility is equal to zero.

It is of importance to emphasise that in order to stress the network, most unfavour-

able conditions were considered; results shown in Figure 7.8 are calculated for Blue

Transition demand scenario for peak situation.

The results of ENTSOG simulations (Figure 7.8) show a good level of Remaining

Flexibility for the South Region. It can be concluded that the network for these

countries is sufficiently strong and can stand wide variations of gas demand in the

system.

Additionally, ENTSOG analysed in the TYNDP 2017 a set of route disruptions,

leading to only two route disruptions with relevant results in terms of remaining

flexibility at a European level: the Belarus and Ukraine route disruptions. Neverthe-

less, for the South Region, neither disruption has significant impact on Remaining

Flexibility. This can be explained by the robustness of the current gas system, being

able to re-route supply of interrupted routes and bring additional gas through LNG

terminals and UGS.

Despite showing good results in terms of remaining flexibility for the South Region,

differences between the three countries can be observed as it is shown in the graphs

below.

The graphs in figure 7.9 show that over time, the Iberian Peninsula is losing its

remaining flexibility if there is no new development of infrastructure. This situation

is due to the increase of demand which occurs for Spain and Portugal in all demand

scenarios. In Portugal, remaining flexibility for PCI and High infra-levels increases

considerably due to the commissioning of the 3

interconnection between Spain

and Portugal.