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impact of climate change on crop yields towards 2040
for the region, including mountainous areas in Georgia
and Armenia, as well as areas with high precipitation
in Azerbaijan, which correlates with higher-altitude
regions. The report concludes that the majority of
the region is likely to be negatively affected by higher
temperatures and evaporation, decreasing and more
varied precipitation patterns, reduced river runoff, and
increased frequency and severity of extreme natural
disasters. The various expected impacts can result in
reduced, and less certain crop quality of and livestock
yields. One example is the mountainous region in the
Upper Araks basin in Armenia. As presented in the
figure below, the estimated changes in yield for this
region show significant decreases when considering the
changes in temperature, precipitation and the expected
decrease in water available for irrigation.
8
It is, however,
also evident that the expected decreases in yields are
estimated to be more adverse at lower altitudes.
The changes in crop yields, however, vary between
locations. For certain crops in the mountain regions
the changes may, in some cases, be beneficial. When
assessing the impact of changes in temperature and
precipitation, Armenia’s intermediate (1001–1700
m.a.s.l) and mountainous (1701–2500 m.a.s.l) areas
are likely to benefit from increasing yields in tomato,
watermelon and wheat crops. Wheat, which is the
country’s key crop, may experience an increase in
yields of 38 per cent in the higher altitudes.
9
While
crop yields will likely decrease throughout Azerbaijan,
pasture yields are expected to increase by 5–11 per cent
with the highest increases expected to take place in areas
Georgia
Armenia
A
r
a
s
-
A
r
a
x
A
r
a
s
-
A
r
a
z
Rioni
Rioni
I
n
g
u
r
i
Alazani / Ganykh
Kura
Mtkvari (Kura)
Kur (Kura)
Kur
Mingachevir
Reservoir
Lake
Sevan
Baku
Yerevan
Tbilisi
Abkhazia
Nakhchyvan
(Azerbaijan)
Adjara
ARMENIA
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijan
irrigated AR
Georgian Eastern lowlands -
Alazani Basin AR
Armenian lowlands -
Upper Aras
Basin AR
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
4
4
4
8
9
9
9
10
10
11
12
12
5
5
5
6
6
7
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
50 km
0
Source : Ahouissoussi at al., 2014.
Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2015.
Percentage change of Irrigated crops yields in the 2040s
relative to current yields under the medium impact climate
scenario, adjusted for estimated irrigation water deficits.
Percentage change of crop
yields in the 2040s relative to
current yields for irrigated crops,
no adaptation but including
irrigation water shortages.
Note: Alfalfa in Georgia, corn
in Azerbaijan and tomato in
Armenia were not analyzed.
Base scenario
Low Impact scenario
Medium Impact scenario
High Impact scenario
Scenarios for 2040
Wheat
Potato Tomato Grape Alfalfa
Corn
Studied agricultural
region or subregion AR - Agricultural region
High rainfall
Irrigated
Low rainfall
Subtropics
Lowlands
Intermediate
Mountainous
Excluded area
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia
Eastern lowlands
Eastern mountainous
Western lowlands
Western mountainous
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
4
9
10
11
12
Agricultural
Regions
Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s in the South Caucasus