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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023
7.3 Simulation results
7.3.1 INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE UNDER DESIGN-CASE
CONDITIONS (REFERENCE CASE)
The supply situation in the Region under Design Case conditions is almost satisfac-
tory. In the 2014, FID-case, only Bulgaria (16.55 %) has a remaining flexibility low-
er than 20%. In the 2018, FID-case, only Hungary (13.59%) and Cyprus (4.16%)
have a remaining flexibility lower than 20%, which is increased in the 2018 FID+PCI
case, for Hungary, but remains low for Cyprus even in the 2018 non-FID case. In
the 2023 FID+PCI case or the non-FID case the remaining flexibility is above 20%
all over the Region, but under 2023 FID case Hungary (7.95%), Slovenia (17.62%)
and Greece (19.19%) have a remaining flexibility under 20%.
It should be noted that the results concerning Cyprus are highly uncertain as this
country does not currently have a natural gas sector. The reduced resilience, in
2018, is due to the Cyprus plan to have gas fired power generation, supplied by im-
ported gas, before starting national production.
Considering the 2023 FID+TAP case, only Hungary (7.95%) and Slovenia (17.62%)
have a remaining flexibility under 20%.
Comparing the 2023 FID+TAP case with the 2023 FID+TAP+IGB and 2023
FID+TAP+IGB+IAP cases the main difference is that the remaining flexibility for
Slovenia with the addition of IAP is increased above 20%, but TAP, IGB and IAP
projects do not have any direct impact on Hungary, where the remaining flexibility
remains practically constant. These results clearly indicate the relevance of the large
key-projects to improve the energy landscape in the Region.
Finally, FYROM presents a low resilience in all cases simulated. This is due to the
fact that it is supplied through a single pipeline from Bulgaria and there is not, in this
GRIP, any project adding import capacity. On the contrary resilience is greatly
improved in Bosnia & Herzegovina in the 2023 non-FID cases due to the commis-
sioning of the connection with Croatia.
It is worth noting that Austria and Slovakia do not face any resiliency problem in any
of the scenarios examined due to their better interconnections which gives them
access to alternative sources of gas.
