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TAR NC Implementation Document – Second Edition September 2017 |
239
MONTHLY SEASONAL FACTORS
15(3)f
Preceding (e) values
multiplied by the
Multiplier (average is
outside range)
15(3)g
We can see from the previous
values that the average of the
SF x Multiplier is above the
range 1 – 1.5 as set out in the
TAR NC. To bring them within
range the correction factor is
applied, which is calculated by
dividing 1.5 by the initial sea-
sonal factor
15(3)h Monthly SF
Preceding (e) values
(Initial Seasonal
Factors) multiplied by
thecorrection factor
Jan
3.552353356
2.400711322
Feb
3.094494479
2.091286307
Mar
2.273506148
1.536455246
Apr
1.578823714
1.06698281
May
1.010447177
0.682868998
Jun
0.568376537
0.384113811
Jul
0.394705928
0.266745702
Aug
0.394705928
0.266745702
Sep
0.568376537
0.384113811
Oct
1.010447177
0.682868998
Nov
1.910376694
1.2910492
Dec
2.668212076
1.803200948
Average
1.585402146
DAILY/WITHIN DAY SEASONAL FACTORS
15(3)f
Preceding (e) values
multiplied by the
Multiplier (average is
outside the range)
15(3)g
We can see from the previous
values that the average of the
SF x Multiplier is above the
range 1 – 3 as set out in the
TAR NC. To bring them within
range the correction factor is
applied, which is calculated
by dividing 3 by the initial
seasonal factor
15(4) Daily/Within day SF
Preceding (e) values
(Initial Seasonal Factors)
multiplied by the
correction factor
Jan
7.612185762
2.2406639
Feb
6.631059597
1.95186722
Mar
4.871798888
1.434024896
Apr
3.383193672
0.995850622
May
2.16524395
0.637344398
Jun
1.217949722
0.358506224
Jul
0.845798418
0.248962656
Aug
0.845798418
0.248962656
Sep
1.217949722
0.358506224
Oct
2.16524395
0.637344398
Nov
4.093664343
1.204979253
Dec
5.717597306
1.682987552
Average
3.397290312
These calculations derive the monthly and daily/within-day Seasonal Factors. The
figure below represents the forecasted flows and the calculated seasonal factors for
the monthly seasonal factors.
Table 65:
Sequence of steps taken to calculate the seasonal factors