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TAR NC Implementation Document – Second Edition September 2017
Annex Q
Article 29(b)(ii) – Example of
the Probability of Interruption
Assessment
The three tables below represent, respectively, a proposal for the format of data pub-
lication for an assessment of the probability of interruption as set out in Article 29(b)
(ii) of the TAR NC and examples of how to group the information regarding different
interruptible capacity products.
PROPOSAL FOR THE FORMAT OF DATA PUBLICATION
Year concerned – IP identification, product
duration
Type 1
Type 2
Type n
Explanation of the calculation of the probability of interruption
Explanation of the historical and/or forecasted data used to estimate the
probability of interruption
Probability of interruption (‘Pro’)
Data used for the estimation of the probability of interruption
Value of the adjustment factor (‘A’)
Ex-ante Discount (Di_(
ex-ante
))
Ex-post Discount (‘Yes’ or ‘n/a’; if ‘Yes’ then explain how the conditions were met)
EXAMPLE 1 FOR CLASSIFICATION OF INTERRUPTIBLE CAPACITY PRODUCTS
October 2017 – September 2018 – IP 1
IP 1 – entry
IP 1 – exit
Explanation of the probability of interruption
Interruption if domestic
consumption is low
Interruption if domestic
consumption is high
Explanation of the historical and/or forecasted data used to
estimate the probability of interruption
Use of historical probability
(2010 to 2015)
Use of historical probability
(2010 to 2015)
Probability of interruption (‘Pro’)
0.25
0.05
Data used for the estimation of the risk of interruption
Data sheet to be included
Data sheet to be included
Value of the adjustment factor ‘A’
2
5
Ex-ante Discount (Di_(
ex-ante
))
50%
25%
Ex-post Discount (‘Yes’ or ‘n/a’; if ‘Yes’ then explain
how the conditions were met)
n/a
n/a
Table 73:
Proposal for the format of data publication for an assessment of the probability of interruption
Table 74:
Example 1 for classification of interruptible capacity products